Page 70 - BNE_magazine_06_2020 Growers

70 Opinion
bne June 2020
After a year in office Zelenskiy is still struggling to end the Donbas conflict
Lindsay Mackenzie in Glasgow
When Russia orchestrated a separatist takeover of the Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014, few would have predicted five years later a former television star with no traditional political experience would be elected on a promise to end the conflict. Yet he was, and on April 21 President Volodymyr Zelenskiy celebrated a year since his landslide victory.
It was a win that symbolised both the Ukrainian public's desire for peace and a wider disenfranchisement with the country's political elite. In the 12 months since, Zelenskiy has had to deal with a host of challenges – some inherited, some self- inflicted, some out of his control. His efforts to end the war in the east have come up against a mix of all three. But despite the progress made, fighting continues to simmer and a lasting solution remains elusive. The fallout from COVID-19 could make finding one much harder.
After the election Zelenskiy was quick to set his sights on resetting the peace process and breathing new life into the 2014-15 Minsk accords. These now controversial agreements were signed in the wake of Moscow’s improvised, haphazard and violent campaign across the region. The resulting chaos allowed for the self-proclaimed quasi-republics of Donetsk and Luhansk to emerge. In comparison to Crimea, Moscow had little interest in the Donbas. Worried about a westward drift, it wanted leverage over Kyiv. What it got was a bloody war. Despite their many flaws the Minsk agreements have kept the 400km frontline mostly static since 2015. Flare-ups like the heavy shelling we saw in February are rare. But the politics has stalled and fighting has killed over 13,000, displaced more than 1.5mn, and left a wave of destruction across what was once one of Europe’s most industrial areas. While in response Ukraine has shown itself to be resilient, even empowered, the conflict has taken its toll on a war-weary population.
This was reflected in the election of Zelenskiy, who, even if somewhat vaguely, campaigned on a platform of peace and reform. To his credit he has wasted little time in trying to
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The frontline in the Donbas conflict has stabilized, but peace seems as far away as ever
keep his promise. He has since overseen several high profile prisoner exchanges; signed up to the Steinmeier Formula
to reintegrate the Donbas through local elections and self- governing status; agreed to confidence building measures such as troop disengagement, de-mining and the opening of crossing points at December’s Normandy summit; and most recently gave a tentative initial green light for the now-on-hold Trilateral Contact Group Advisory Board to bring community leaders together from both sides of the frontline.
It has been an experimental toolbox of ideas. Some have worked better than others (implementing Normandy has been slow). Some have been rushed and haphazard (the clumsy handling of the TCG group has done the government no favours). But they have all been well intentioned; that
is, focused on the idea of building trust through small yet important acts of nuanced public diplomacy – something lacking under Zelenskiy’s predecessor – with the hope of eventually moving from de-escalation to a lasting resolution.
How realistic this hope is, however, isn’t clear. New energy, engagement and dialogue have come up against combative domestic politics in Ukraine and overwhelming intransigence from Moscow. These roadblocks, which essentially amount to incompatible interpretations of the conflict, mean a long term settlement remains far from certain. Now COVID-19 will bring its own wave of disruption.
Diplomacy, compromise, reintegration
It shouldn't need reminding that Ukraine is the victim here;
its land invaded, annexed, occupied. Ukrainians want peace but not at any cost. Zelenskiy knows this. He has had to walk
a perhaps unrealistic tightrope, balancing competing visions and managing expectations of what it means to compromise. It hasn’t been easy and at times Zelenskiy has struggled to pin down a coherent strategy. He remains popular but his numbers have, not unexpectedly, dropped since the highs of last year. Polling also shows those who believe Ukraine is heading in the right direction to be fluctuating.