Page 17 - bne IntelliNews Turkey Outlook 2024

Due to the hyperinflationary environment, minimum wage hikes had to be delivered twice in 2022 and 2023. The Erdogan regime is aiming to skip the second-half hike in 2024.
Turkey is in a price-wage spiral, although wage hikes remain below both the official and actual inflation figures.
Turkey’s inflation is always cost-side, generally due to currency depreciation. Wage increases follow price increases.
Turkey: Consumption indicators
%, y/y
2020
2021
2022
Q1-2023
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4
2023
Official GDP Growth (real, y/y)
1.8
11.0
5.6
4.0
3.9
5.9
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity Consumption (watt, y/y)
0.1
12.4
-1.0
-5.3
-4.3
6.3
2.6
3.8
3.2
3.2
0.1
Private Consumption ( ≈ 60% of
3.2
15.1
19.7
16.9
15.4
11.2
-
-
-
-
-
GDP)
Retail Sales Index (unadjusted, y/y)
3.8
16.1
10.7
28.7
27.7
21.8
15.0
-
-
-
-
Card payments (nominal lira, y/y)
13.0
62.4
109.3
148.4
123.8
112.3
117.1
112.2
-
-
-
ENAG Inflation (y/y, %)
-
82.8
137.6
112.5
108.6
130.1
126.2
129.3
127.2
127.2
127.2
Gasoline sales (m3, y/y)
-3.2
30.8
11.1
25.2
32.4
21.8
7.4
30.9
-
-
-
Diesel fuel sales (m3, y/y)
0.3
10.8
0.1
7.7
6.3
6.0
0.7
12.8
-
-
-
Autogas (LPG) sales (tonne, y/y)
-8.6
7.3
6.6
28.7
22.5
6.4
1.0
0.1
-
-
-
Vehicle Sales (unit, y/y)
61.3
-4.6
6.2
55.2
56.1
84.6
55.7
42.6
36.7
42.7
57.4
Home Sales (unit, y/y)
11.2
-0.5
-0.4
-11.5
-30.5
1.1
-8.7
-20.6
-
-
-
White goods sales (unit, y/y)
16.7
9.2
-1.7
9.9
26.2
18.5
1.2
-1.0
-
-
-
Air passengers (person, y/y)
-60.9
57.4
42.1
31.5
21.6
13.0
10.7
8.4
-
-
-
Foreign Tourist (person, y/y)
-71.7
94.1
80.3
26.7
17.0
6.2
3.8
-1.0
-
-
-
5.2 Banks
Turkish bankers are currently happy with the shift in economic policy. Macroprudential measures and non-capital controls are still in effect.
17 Turkey Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com