Page 19 - bne IntelliNews Turkey Outlook 2024

6.0 Budget and debt outlook
Turkey currently has a B/Stable rating, five notches below investment grade, from Fitch Ratings, a B3/Stable, six notches below investment grade, from Moody’s Investors Service and a B/Positive, five notches below investment grade, from S&P Global Ratings.
As usual, Fitch sees Turkish banks being at one notch below the sovereign rating. Major corporates and banks have ratings in line with the sovereign.
Fitch has scheduled Turkey update releases for March 8 and September 6 in 2024. Moody’s has released its Turkey dates as January 12 and July 19.
Some upgrades will be delivered in 2024. However, the ratings will still remain in “deep junk”.
The country rolls over a combined sum of around $150-200bn worth of external debt each year. Since 2018, some anxieties have been regularly raised over the prospect of a Turkish default. No such default has occurred yet.
In 2024, fresh funds will come via the ongoing economic normalisation policy. Debt rollover rates, which already stand at over 100%, will rise higher.
The share of syndicated loans in the composition of the external funding of Turkey and Turkish banks has declined in recent years. Despite the lower share in the composition, the banks’ syndicated loan renewals are a good indicator for tracking developments in the sustainability of Turkey’s external debt burden.
19 Turkey Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com