Page 18 - bne IntelliNews Turkey Outlook 2024

5.3 Industry
The Erdogan regime subsidises energy prices, the exchange rate and loan rates. As a result, economic activity simply produces a trade deficit.
When the finance industry decides to stop financing Turkey’s trade deficit, sharp corrections in the currency take place. Sooner or later, a sharp monetary tightening is employed to curb economic activity and, as a result, the trade deficit.
The country is currently in the sharp monetary tightening phase of this cycle.
Turkey: Production indicators
y/y, %
2020
2021
2022
Q1-2023
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4
2023
Official GDP Growth (y/y, %)
1.8
11.0
5.6
4.0
3.9
5.9
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity Consumption (watt, y/y, %)
0.1
12.4
-1.0
-5.3
-4.3
6.3
2.6
3.8
3.2
3.2
0.1
Employed (active, mn people)
24.1
27.0
29.3
29.5
28.6
30.9
-
-
-
-
-
Industry (≈ 20% of GDP, y/y, %)
3.2
17.3
1.7
-1.0
-2.7
5.7
-
-
-
-
-
Industrial Production Index (unadjusted)
2.2
16.5
6.2
-0.4
-3.5
7.8
3.8
-
-
-
-
Vehicle Production (unit, y/y, %)
-10.0
-0.3
5.3
21.3
6.7
9.1
17.9
3.5
-
-
-
Crude Steel Production (tonnes, y/y, %)
6.0
12.9
-13.0
-21.5
-11.5
3.6
4.2
25.4
-
-
-
White Goods Production (unit,y/y,%)
3.5
16.7
-3.6
-2.4
-1.3
2.1
-1.7
-6.4
-
-
-
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