Page 13 - Kazakh Outlook 2024

6.0 Budget and debt outlook
The Mazhilis, Kazakhstan's lower chamber of parliament, on November 1 approved a three-year budget plan. The draft law indicates anticipated growth in budget expenditures of KZT1.3 trillion ($3.2bn) to nearly KZT24 trillion ($54bn) in 2024.
Projected budget spending stands at approximately KZT23.8 trillion ($51.3bn) for 2025 and is forecast to exceed KZT25.1 trillion ($54.1bn) in 2026.
According to the Ministry of Finance, there are estimated budget deficits for the three years ahead, with spending expected to surpass revenues. The deficit is projected to be KZT3.5 trillion ($7.5bn) in 2024, and to escalate to KZT3.6 trillion ($7.8bn) in 2025 and reach KZT3.9 trillion ($8.4bn) in 2026. To address part of this deficit, the government will rely on a guaranteed transfer from the National Fund amounting to KZT2 trillion ($4.3bn) annually. This figure represents a reduction from the KZT2.3 trillion ($4.96bn) transferred in 2023.
In the first six months of 2023, Kazakhstan’s public debt grew by $8.1bn to $62.8bn (27% of 2022 GDP). External debt stood at 7% of 2022 GDP in the first half of 2023. Both indicators are likely to grow in 2024, especially given the government's plans to continue ramping up spending to further cushion the Kazakh economy from the indirect consequences of the war in Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia.
7.0 Energy & Power
New export routes
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced Kazakhstan's decision to sign up to the Global Methane Pledge during COP28 on December 1, joining Central Asian neighbour Turkmenistan in doing so. Under the US- and EU-led Pledge, more than 150 countries have since 2021 pledged to slash their methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030 – but few have stepped forward with concrete plans on how they will achieve this.
KazTransOil reported that in 2024 the volume of Russian oil transit through Kazakh territory to Uzbekistan is predicted to increase to at least 500,000 tonnes, with the possibility of doubling. In addition, Russia transits 10mn tonnes of oil annually through Kazakhstan to China, to make up for bottlenecks along the Eastern Siberian-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline. Also, in March of this year, Kazakhstan agreed with Russia on the possibility of importing up to 850,000 tonnes of diesel fuel in 2023.
Kazakhstan’s national oil transport operator KazTransOil will raise the tariff for the transit of oil from Russia to Uzbekistan and China by 21% from next year, the company said in December.
Kazakhstan has also launched oil exports to Germany via Russia’s Druzhba
13 Kazakhstan Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com