Page 4 - Kazakh Outlook 2024

Executive summary
Kazakhstan managed to stabilise its economy coming out of the COVID-19 crisis, but then faced a whirlwind of economic consequences stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many of those consequences have turned out positive, however. On the political side, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev continued to consolidate his power in 2023, following the political unrest at the start of 2022, which sidelined his predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev and his family in terms of remaining power and influence.
The overall stabilisation has not prevented Kazakhstan’s population from growing poorer amid the double-digit inflation that pervaded both 2022 and 2023; and, although inflation appears to be on the wane, many ordinary citizens continue to feel embittered by Kazakh authorities. The persistent public anger has the capacity to spill over into countrywide unrest similar to what was seen in “Bloody January” in 2022.
Despite the ongoing drives to diversify the Kazakh economy, the country continues to primarily rely on oil exports. They have suffered bouts of disruption as Kazakhstan’s primary crude oil export route goes through Russia and relies on Black Sea shipments. Kazakhstan, as you might expect, is thus attempting to diversify its oil export routes, while simultaneously transforming ports and cities into trade and logistics hubs to facilitate trade between Europe and China that bypasses Russian transit corridors. More of this can be anticipated in 2023, with the authorities attempting to walk the thin line of maintaining economic cooperation with Russia, while at the same time trying to appeal to the West for support and investment.
1.0 Political outlook
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev had previously referred to plans to launch full-blown elections for city and district mayors (akims) in 2024. However, it was back in 2021 that he mentioned that this was on his agenda and, following the unrest seen in January 2022, it is unclear whether he aims to stick with these plans. In the past year, he launched elections in “pilot mode” in 45 districts and towns, though there has been no proper follow-up on the results. It is also unclear what Tokayev would consider to be a “successful” local election, seeing as how his regime has been cracking down on dissent in a manner not too dissimilar from that seen under his predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev. The fact that Tokayev even bothered to attempt such local elections at all seems to suggest, nevertheless, that the authorities might stick with the 2024 timetable.
Yet there is reason to believe that Tokayev might back off from the plans. Based on his actions against opposition figures and civil society, it seems his government is concerned that the shifting sentiments of Kazakh citizens towards the administration could potentially be
4 Kazakhstan Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com