Page 5 - Kazakh Outlook 2024

exploited by other influential figures to recreate a situation akin to that of January 2022.
In a series of articles by bne IntelliNews detailing the unrest of that January, sources familiar with the situation claimed that a significant part of the turbulence, particularly in terms of what eventuated in Almaty, was orchestrated and coordinated by factions linked to members and supporters of the Nazarbayev family. These groups were purportedly aiming to oust Tokayev from power.
Although Tokayev emerged victorious, due to support from Vladimir Putin's regime and an intervention by the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) that seemed decisive in persuading the Kazakh military top brass that it would be best to comply with Tokayev's orders, the subsequent arrests of those involved in attempting the coup have not seemed to ease Tokayev's concerns. Instead, the regime continues to closely control dissent within the country, sometimes even more intensely than what was experienced during the Nazarbayev era.
This level of anxiety within Tokayev's administration certainly implies a fear of a recurrence of the January 2022 events, as highlighted by human rights activist Bakytzhan Toregozhina in a recent RFE/RL article.
Kazakh authorities are currently monitoring striking oil workers in Mangystau Region. Reports suggest that riot police have been deployed from multiple regions to the oil town of Zhetybai, located near the restive oil town of Zhanaozen, a city that featured in the sparking of Bloody January.
Authorities are calling the oil workers’ strike “illegal”. Oil workers and mining industry workers in Kazakhstan have historically held strikes during winter-time, but it is clear that Tokayev’s administration is unwilling to “play nice” with this latest manifestation. The government would not like to see countrywide unrest going into 2024. This, of course, implies that a repeat of the January 2022 scenario is not out of the question at the start, or at another point, of the coming year.
5 Kazakhstan Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com