Page 6 - Kazakh Outlook 2024

2.0 Macro Economy
Kazakhstan: Key economic figures and forecasts
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real GDP (% y/y) 1.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 -2.5 4 3.3 Projected on average at
around 3%-5%
Industrial output (% -2.5 1.8 5.4 6.4 0.3 3.8 1.2 y/y)
Unemployment rate 4.96 4.9 4.85 4.8 6.05 4.9 4.9 (avg, %)
Official rate likely to remain unchanged
Consumer prices 14.5 7.4 6.0 5.2 6.7 8.4 20.3 (avg, % y/y)
Projected at around 5%-10%
Public debt (% of 19.7% 19.9% 20.2% 19.9% 23.4% 27.4% 24.4% GDP)
Current account -3.8% -3.0% -2.2% -3.5% balance (% of GDP)
Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH, TradingEconomics, IMF, ADB, stat.gov.kz
2.1 GDP growth
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD’s) latest Regional Economic Prospects (REP) report indicated that the Kazakh economy is set to grow 5% in 2023-2024, despite some uncertainty arising from oil prices.
Kazakhstan’s central bank has revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to a range of 3.2%-4.2% from its earlier projection of 4%-5%. This revision was due to an anticipated delay in an expansion project at the massive Tengiz oilfield. However, the regulator’s 2025 GDP forecast was revised upward to 5.5%-6.5% from the previous estimate of 4%-5%.
National Economy Minister Alibek Kuantyrov announced in November that Kazakhstan's GDP grew by 4.9% y/y in January-October.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a note in November that Kazakhstan’s “GDP growth is projected at 4.8% for 2023, driven by both
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