Page 53 - RusRPTJul23

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has improved its outlook for the Russian economy again in its latest June survey of professional economists’ predictions, which includes the central bank’s own forecasts.
Analysts significantly improved their forecast for growth this year to predicting 0.8% growth, up from an earlier prediction of 0.1% contraction in April. in 2025 will be 1.6%, where it will remain in the long-term, the CBR said. The central bank’s own forecast for growth is in the range of 1%-2% for this year.
The median forecast for inflation this year was lowered to 5.5%, down by 0.4%pp from the April survey, but still above the 4% target rate. And nominal wages will continue to grow in the extremely tight labour market, which also means, thanks to falling inflation, real wages will also rise that will feed Russia’s growth.
Analysts expectations of this year’s budget deficit are for 2.7% of GDP, which is worse than the Ministry of Finance (MinFin) forecast that it will hit its 2% target, although Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently admitted that his target may be missed.
And trade continues to do well, with $500bn of exports of goods and services and $375bn of imports leaving a trade surplus of $125bn. That is less than the record $275bn in 2022, but at the same level of the previous record set in 2021 of $120bn.
The details and charts are in the CBR’s report.
Russia expects 1.5-2% of GDP growth says Putin. The annual inflation in Russia will reach about 5%, the President said
53 RUSSIA Country Report July 2023 www.intellinews.com