Page 55 - RusRPTJul23

This projection for a GDP decline in 2023 marks a significant revision from the bank's previous forecast in January, with the estimate now being 3.1 percentage points higher than previously predicted. Additionally, the World Bank has downgraded its GDP growth expectation for 2024 by 0.4 percentage points.
Looking further ahead, the report suggests that in 2025, Russia's GDP is projected to grow by 0.8%. While this indicates a modest expansion, it highlights the expectation of continued challenges and a slow recovery for the Russian economy.
The World Bank's revised forecast reflects the uncertainties and complexities surrounding Russia's economic landscape. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, global market conditions, and domestic policy decisions will all play a role in shaping the country's economic performance in the coming years.
In April, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated that the ministry expects Russia's GDP to rise at 1.2% in 2023 and 3% by 2026, owing primarily to a recovery in consumer demand.
The organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also improved its forecast for a contraction in Russia’s economy this year to 1.5% from the previous expectations of 2.5%, Prime reported on June 7. The forecast for 2024 was improved to a 0.4% contraction from 0.5%. The OECD also improved its expectation of the global economic growth to 2.7% from 2.6% this year.
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
55 RUSSIA Country Report July 2023 www.intellinews.com