Page 54 - RusRPTJul23

The Russian economy will return to the pre-crisis level in the next year, Governor of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference after the Board meeting. "According to our forecast, considering the gradual substitution of the external demand by the internal one, the economy will completely return to the pre-crisis level in the next year," Nabiullina said.
The IMF forecast in its latest World Economic Outlook that global growth will bottom out at 2.8 percent this year before rising modestly to 3 percent next year—0.1 percentage points below our January projections. Global inflation will fall, though more slowly than initially anticipated, from 8.7 percent last year to 7 percent this year and 4.9 percent in 2024.
“This year’s economic slowdown is concentrated in advanced economies, especially the euro area and the United Kingdom, where growth is expected to fall to 0.8 percent and -0.3 percent this year before rebounding to 1.4 and 1 percent respectively. By contrast, despite a 0.5 percentage point downward revision, many emerging market and developing economies are picking up, with year-end to year-end growth accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2023 from 2.8 percent in 2022,” the IMF said.
“First, inflation is much stickier than anticipated, even a few months ago. While global inflation has declined, that reflects mostly the sharp reversal in energy and food prices. But core inflation, which excludes energy and food, has not yet peaked in many countries. We expect year-end to year-end core inflation will slow to 5.1 percent this year, a sizeable upward revision of 0.6 percentage points from our January update, and well above target,” the IMF concluded in a recent blog.
Russian President Vladimir Putin expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 1–2% in 2023, he said in a messenger to participants of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 7.
"According to experts, the global economy will continue to slow down in 2023, while Russia’s GDP can increase by 1–2%," the telegram read.
Putin urged for focusing on Russia's technological and financial sovereignty, creating optimal cooperation and logistics, improving infrastructure, cutting inequality and poverty.
"Labour market stimulation is among the priorities. Close, partnership relations between the government and the business are needed to implement lean production technologies, modernization of enterprises,” he said.
In April, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated that the ministry expects Russia's GDP to rise at 1.2% in 2023 and 3% by 2026, owing primarily to a recovery in consumer demand.
The World Bank forecasts a small decline of 0.2% in the country's GDP for 2023, according to its latest report on Russia's economic outlook released on June 7. However, the bank anticipates a rebound in economic growth in 2024, projecting a growth rate of 1.2%.
54 RUSSIA Country Report July 2023 www.intellinews.com