Page 73 - bne monthly magazine June 2024 Russian Despair Index

bne June 2024 Opinion 73
Yerevan and Baku have taken a first step by accepting the Alma-Ata Declaration as a guiding document in the process of border demarcation, fixing the borders at the time of the collapse of the USSR. / bne IntelliNews
return of refugees to Nagorno-Karabakh". However, there is no visible action by the G7 countries to deploy international peacekeeping forces to Nagorno-Karabakh. Until this occurs, the return of Armenians to Karabakh is improbable.
If Armenia insists on the return of the Karabakh Armenians in the current negotiations, Azerbaijan would demand
the return of Azerbaijanis to Armenian-occupied territory based on the principle of reciprocity. These factors currently preclude the return of Armenians to Karabakh.
Yerevan is disinclined to make the Karabakh Armenians’ fate a subject of discussions with Azerbaijan, understanding that it would hinder reaching an overall agreement. Armenia is prepared to remain silent on the issue of Karabakh and forgo lawsuits against Azerbaijan in international courts in order to facilitate the signing of the treaty.
Pashinyan’s changed stance
With the difficult decision to cede four villages to Azerbaijan, Pashinyan's government has demonstrated its genuine intention to sign a peace treaty.
After the 44-day war in 2020, Pashinyan reconsidered his ideas about relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Until September 27, 2020, he was no different from today's nationalist figures in Armenia, holding radical positions on relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
However, the situation has now changed 180 degrees.
In recent months, Pashinyan has been trying to convince
Armenian society that it is necessary to abandon the dream of restoring "historical Armenia" and instead deal with the realities of "real Armenia." The survival of "real Armenia" implies the need to rebuild relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Even with its Western allies, Armenia has no chance of pursuing a confrontational policy with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenia is inferior to Turkey and Azerbaijan in terms of economic, military, and demographic potential.
“With the difficult decision to
cede four villages to Azerbaijan, Pashinyan's government has demonstrated its genuine intention to sign a peace treaty”
Among Pashinyan and his team, the idea has also taken root that Russia, rather than Armenia, benefits from Armenian’s long-term conflicts with Turkey and Azerbaijan. The existence of military conflicts in the South Caucasus and Armenia’s tensions with Turkey strengthened Russia's position. Armenia is directly dependent on Russia, and if this dependence is not addressed, Armenian statehood may cease to exist. This is why Pashinyan approaches relations
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