Page 75 - bne monthly magazine June 2024 Russian Despair Index

bne June 2024
Opinion 75
The Russian spoiler
The conclusion of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty has a stronger opponent than Aliyev. The main state opposing the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is Russia.
Russia has maintained its military and political presence in the South Caucasus for 200 to 300 years by provoking conflicts between local peoples. Russia has troops in all countries of the South Caucasus: Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, giving it dominant control.
The Russians have used the same method in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has not been resolved for decades because Russia did not want it to be.
The conclusion of the peace treaty implies that Armenians and Azerbaijanis should stop killing each other, and problematic issues should be resolved through negotiations. It is not a favourable scenario for Moscow. If Armenians and Azerbaijanis stop killing each other, Russia's presence in the South Caucasus would become meaningless.
Two years before its attack on Ukraine, Russia, in a deal with Turkey, agreed that Azerbaijan could start a war against Nagorno-Karabakh. That war also gave the Kremlin a chance to send troops into Karabakh. In addition, Putin got the loyalty of Aliyev and Erdogan in his war against Ukraine.
“The motivation to protect Azerbaijan's citizens from the military aggression of "enemy Armenians" ensures the consolidation of Azerbaijani society around the Aliyev regime.”
But this policy has been a complete failure. Today, Russian peacekeepers are leaving Karabakh following the Azerbaijan reconquest. Even the Russian military presence in Armenia is now at risk. Pashinyan recently said that Russian military positions should be removed from the demarcated border of the Tavush region. The Kremlin has repeatedly tried to deploy CSTO or Russian troops on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border throughout the demarcation period. But Russia was excluded from the demarcation process, even though a Russian commission was created. If border demarcation is carried
out in the Gegharkunik and Syunik regions, Russian military positions will also be removed from those regions.
The reduction of Russian military-political influence in the South Caucasus is a crushing defeat for Putin's policy. Moscow will try to prevent the signing of an Armenian-Azerbaijani
peace treaty to prevent the scenario of the removal of Russian military units. The settlement of relations between Armenia and Turkey would also make the existence of Russian border guards on the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders pointless.
It can also be expected that Armenia will demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory, including the withdrawal of the 102nd military base in Gyumri. This will be the final expulsion of Russia from the South Caucasus. In other words, Putin was not only unable to win the war against Ukraine but may also lose his influence in the
South Caucasus.
Russia will try to disrupt the signing of a peace treaty,
using both its influence on Azerbaijan and the political forces loyal to it in Armenia. While the West welcomed the latest Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement on the Alma-Ata declaration, Russia remained silent. Rather, Russia is trying to find ways to punish Pashinyan.
The pro-Russian opposition, taking advantage of Pashinyan's unpopular decision, is trying to take advantage of public dissatisfaction and generate anti-government movements. However, at the moment, there are no grounds to claim that the protests against the border demarcation process will have a potential nationwide scope and nature. It is more likely that they will disappear after the completion of the demarcation process around the four villages.
Aliyev plays Putin’s game
But Russia also still has great influence over Azerbaijan. Aliyev arrived in Moscow on February 22, the second anniversary of the signing of the Russia-Azerbaijan strategic alliance declaration. Afterwards Aliyev presented Armenia with artificial preconditions to make reaching a final peace agreement nearly impossible.
Praising Russia's "fundamental" role in the South Caucasus, Aliyev insisted that Armenia is obliged to provide what it calls the "Zangezur Corridor" under Russian control, a strip of territory linking Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhichevan.
In the last four years, Armenia lost hundreds of servicemen and lost territories, but Armenia did not yield to Azerbaijan and Russia the "Zangezur Corridor". There is almost zero probability that Pashinyan will agree to provide Russia
and Azerbaijan with this, which would violate Armenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
According to our information, Yerevan now will propose new regulations to Baku that will make transportation to Nakhichevan more comfortable, but Armenia's sovereignty will be preserved. In other words, soon, Baku will have a chance to prove that it does not serve Russia's plan. But I'm a sceptic on this question.
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