Page 76 - bne monthly magazine June 2024 Russian Despair Index

76 Opinion
bne June 2024
Aliyev demands Armenia change its constitution
After the meeting with Putin, Aliyev also demanded that Armenia change its constitution.
The Declaration of Independence is mentioned in the constitution, the text of which also refers to the "Armenia - Nagorno-Karabakh reunification decision" of the Supreme Councils of Karabakh and Armenia. However, in the peace treaty negotiations, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a principle according to which the parties cannot refer to domestic legislation to not fulfill the provisions of the peace treaty.
In other words, by recognising the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan with the Alma Ata declaration, Armenia includes Nagorno-Karabakh in the composition of Azerbaijan.
And since Armenia undertakes not to refer to its domestic legislation, this problem has been overcome. After the signing of the agreement, Armenia cannot consider Nagorno-Karabakh as separate from Azerbaijan, referring to its constitution.
However, since Azerbaijan appears to be under Russian orders to block the conclusion of the agreement, Aliyev put forward the demand to change the constitution. I think Pashinyan's government has no chance of holding a referendum to
adopt a new constitution, considering that it is Azerbaijan's demand. Armenian society will oppose it. Azerbaijan is deliberately presenting an unrealistic demand.
Azerbaijan itself has some problems with its constitution. Azerbaijan declares itself the successor of the First Republic, by which it expresses ambitions for the eastern territories
of present-day Armenia. Aliyev is not going to change his constitution, but he makes such demands on Armenia.
Aliyev also demands that Yerevan give up using Mount
Ararat as a symbol. Ararat is a biblical mountain, and Armenia, which was the first in the world to adopt Christianity, cannot but consider that mountain as one of its symbols, even if it
is located in the territory of Turkey. This is also an artificial obstacle that Aliyev deliberately puts forward.
It is also not excluded that the issue of dropping the Azerbaijan blockade will be left out of the draft peace treaty, and after the signing of the treaty, Armenia will continue to be under a blockade.
Will the historic chance fail?
Therefore, although Armenia and Azerbaijan are now the closest they have been to signing a peace treaty in the last 30 years, there is a high probability that it will not be signed.
Armenia's efforts and constructive stance alone are not enough to conclude an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace
treaty, because Aliyev continues to serve Putin's interests. The Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples will probably not realise the historical chance to sign a peace treaty. And even Pashinyan's realism may become meaningless.
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For the wars in the South Caucasus to end and a peace treaty to be signed, the US and the EU must exert strong pressure on Azerbaijan. If they don’t, Azerbaijan will become the main base for the spread of Russia's military and political influence in the South Caucasus, whose function will be the fight against the influence of the West.
Aliyev now positions himself as a figure fighting against extra-regional forces. He repeats the mantra of Putin and Erdogan that the problems of the South Caucasus should be solved by the forces of the region, and not by the countries across the ocean, referring to the US.
The president of Azerbaijan is playing on the Russian
field. The signing of the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan will reduce the Russian factor in the region, and the role of the US and the EU will increase. By presenting these demands, Aliyev is trying to weaken and neutralise Western pressures. Aliyev's activity in the Russian direction is a message to the US and the EU that they could finally lose Baku if they try to impose sanctions.
“Yet the West has decided to increase the level of resilience of Armenia, giving the Armenian side a chance to defend itself against the illegal demands of Azerbaijan and Russia”
Yet the West has decided to increase the level of resilience of Armenia, giving the Armenian side a chance to defend itself against the illegal demands of Azerbaijan and Russia.
On Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a telephone conversation with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. He called on Aliyev to maintain dialogue with his Armenian counterpart, and expressed gratitude to Aliyev for the declaration of demarcation between the parties.
He emphasised its importance for both Yerevan and Baku
in achieving stable and dignified peace. While talking to Pashinyan, Blinken also emphasised the ongoing efforts of the United States to support Armenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as Pashinyan's vision of a prosperous, democratic, and independent future for Armenia.
Although Baku refuses to sign a peace treaty in Washington, the US has taken a positive role in these processes. Whether or not Azerbaijan president will drop those obstacles preventing the conclusion of the agreement will depend especially on the involvement of the USA – both its determination and its demonstration of positive power.