Page 5 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

Executive summary
2023 was a good year for centrist parties in elections in Central Europe and the Baltic states, particularly given the dire economic environment and worrying geopolitical picture.
It was also a year when the region remained largely stalwart in its support for Ukraine, despite the efforts of populists to whip up fatigue. This is likely to continue, almost regardless of the news from the battlefield.
In Poland and Estonia, centre-right parties under strong leaders who promised stability and security in challenging times were able to outmuscle their radical right-wing opponents. Populists suffered setbacks everywhere, except Slovakia, where left-wing strongman Robert Fico squeezed back to power for a fourth term in the September elections.
In the most crucial contest, Poland’s radical right-wing government under the de facto leadership of Jaroslaw Kaczynski was defeated by a broad coalition of centrist and left-wing parties under returning premier Donald Tusk in general elections in October.
In January, distinguished former general Petr Pavel defeated billionaire populist and former premier Andrej Babis in the contest for the important Czech presidency.
Meanwhile in the Baltic states, Kaja Kallas’ centre-right Reform Party seized a vital victory in March over the radical right-wing EKRA party in the Estonian general election, while in Latvia, the ruling coalition was restructured in September by ejecting the radical right-wing National Alliance and bringing in centrist and centre-left parties.
Orban isolated
The failure of populists once again to make a breakthrough and in particular the defeat of Kaczynski’s Law and Justice Party has left Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban – Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s only ally in the bloc – even more isolated than before.
The Polish election result ended the Warsaw-Budapest axis that has obstructed European Union decision-making and helped give Hungarian premier Orban an outsized international importance. The axis, already battered by Orban’s defence of Moscow, is now beyond repair.
5 CE Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com