Page 7 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

European Council.
On the Ukraine conflict, Poland will be an even stronger backer of Kyiv, though there are likely to be continuing tensions over grain imports and trucking. Poland, with its big farming sector and as a large recipient of EU structural funds, will also inevitably want to preserve its interests when Ukraine enters proper negotiations to join the bloc, as it will be a natural competitor for both aid and exports.
Looking at the outlook in domestic politics, Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition has had an extremely rough start in office, with fierce opposition by Law and Justice MPs, President Andrzej Duda and the party’s placemen across state institutions and the judiciary.
The government faces the tricky task of removing the obstructing officials (many of whom were appointed or entrenched in controversial circumstances) and pushing through its reforms, particularly on repairing the rule of law, without trampling on the rule of law itself. The European Union has signalled that it will soon release aid frozen over Law and Justice’s breaches of the rule of law, but it might have difficulty justifying this if the government is too aggressive in seizing control of the state apparatus.
Opinion polls indicate that voters still remain behind the government, but the biggest tests this year will come in the local elections in April and the European Parliamentary elections in June.
Fico confirms fears
In Slovakia, incoming premier Robert Fico is so far confirming the worst fears of his critics. As well as embedding its own people throughout the state apparatus, police and prosecution service, the populist government has put forward a set of legislative measures that will make it more difficult to prosecute its supporters already on trial for corruption, or to prosecute them in the future.
The package would dismantle the Special Prosecutor Office and change the Criminal Code to reduce sentences for corruption, shorten the time to prosecute offences and weaken the status of whistle-blowers. The measures have sparked big protests, parliamentary filibustering and criticism from EU policymakers.
Whether the EU decides to penalise Slovakia over any breaches of the rule of law, as it did with Hungary and Poland, will be one of the key questions this year. If the EU does so, it could turn Fico into an even firmer ally of Hungary’s Viktor Orban, which would obstruct EU policymaking, particularly on Ukraine.
The big electoral test this year will be the presidential election, which
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