Page 6 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

The relationship between Hungary and the EU deteriorated further in 2023 as Budapest’s EU funds remained frozen over Orban’s hollowing out of his country’s democracy, leading the Hungarian strongman to step up his obstruction of the bloc’s decision-making.
The tensions culminated at the December 14-15 summit, when Hungary’s radical right-wing leader blocked an amendment of the EU’s long-term budget to provide much-needed funds to Ukraine. The bloc is now scrambling to put together a plan B for aiding Kyiv, though there is hope that Orban will once again back down.
Fico’s professed support for Orban will offer scant consolation for the loss of Poland’s, as he is unlikely to go to the wire to defend him.
Fico won the September 30 Slovak elections campaigning to end military support for Ukraine, though he will not block commercial deals. During his visit to Budapest in January, the left-wing populist offered his support to Orban on limiting EU financial aid to Ukraine, but stopped short of threatening to join Hungary in vetoing the EU’s €50bn four-year plan. He also said he would veto any attempt to take away Hungary’s European Union voting rights or extend majority voting in the European Council.
Orban will be hoping for more allies following the European Parliamentary elections in June – though centrists are likely to be able to maintain an overall majority in the chamber. Afterwards Hungary will hold the bloc’s rotating presidency, which will at least offer the diminutive Hungarian strongman a higher platform.
Outside events offer more hope for the “Viktator”. Irregular migration will be the gift that keeps on giving for populists, with several countries in Central Europe suspending the Schengen passport-free regime in 2023 to try to halt refugee flows. And populists everywhere will be looking to the US election in November for the return of Donald Trump.
Poland to realise potential
Poland’s landmark election result will have wider international repercussions than just Central Europe. It should allow Poland to realise its potential as a significant actor inside the European Union, where it is likely to bypass the divided and moribund Visegrad Group of Central European states and deal directly with the bloc’s heavyweights such as Germany.
But it won’t all be plain sailing. The Polish government is likely to disagree with Brussels on the pace of how the bloc approaches green issues designed to tackle climate change and make future growth more sustainable. It will also continue to fight against quotas for accepting refugees, and will be suspicious of greater majority voting in the
6 CE Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com