Page 8 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

could consolidate Fico’s control of the political system.
Polls show former Minister of Foreign Affairs and pro-Western diplomat Ivan Korcok and Parliamentary Speaker and leader of the coalition’s centre-left Hlas party Robert Pellegrini are the most likely candidates to face each other in the run-off in April. Pellegrini is currently in the lead, but his popularity may be dented if the protests against the government escalate and the EU gets involved.
There is also a chance that the government itself might fall apart. It only
has a narrow majority of 79 seats in the 150-member parliament, and both Hlas and the far-right Slovak Nationalist Party are showing signs of fragility.
Czech government staggers on
In Czechia, the second least popular government in the country’s history is likely to stagger on, despite electoral tests in the European Parliamentary elections in June and regional and Senate elections in September. The centre-right government’s ratings are unlikely to be boosted by the country’s mediocre economic performance and the impact of its austerity policies. Its only hope in the 2025 general election appears to rest on opposition leader Andrej Babis’ shortage of potential allies. His “technocratic populist” ANO party vehicle is currently polling at a massive 35%.
Hungarian politics also look quiet this year, with the feeble and divided opposition struggling to make an impact in Viktor Orban’s restricted democracy. The sovereignty bill, which resembles Russia’s foreign agent legislation, and the setting up of the Sovereignty Protection Office could serve to further intimidate and silence critics. The main test for Orban’s regime will be the European parliamentary and regional elections in June, where his Fidesz party is expected to sweep the board outside Budapest.
In the typically fissile Baltic states, the focus will be on Lithuania, which will hold a presidential election in May, and parliamentary (Seima) election in October. Incumbent President Gitanas Nauseda appears a shoe-in for the presidential election, while the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) looks likely to oust the ruling centre-right Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats.
There is a question mark still hanging over the future of Estonian centre-right premier Kaja Kallas, who is deeply unpopular for pushing through tax rises just after her re-election, and because of the Russian business activities of her husband.
Change can also not be ruled out in Latvia, where the New Unity-led government of new centre-right premier Evika Silina only has a majority
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