Page 66 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine December 2024

66 Opinion
bne December 2024
For both Moldova and Georgia, economic issues often overshadow the debate on EU integration, especially in rural regions where poverty and economic instability prevail. Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest nations, has struggled to recover from recent economic shocks, including the COVID- 19 pandemic and the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine. Inflation and a Russian-induced gas crisis have exacerbated hardship, leading many voters, especially in rural areas to prioritise economic survival over geopolitical alignment.
In Moldova, public disillusionment with pro-EU politicians’ failure to cushion the population from external economic shocks appears to have bled into skepticism towards the EU itself. This previously happened a decade ago, when support for EU accession in Moldova also fell, despite the signing
of the Association Agreement and the economic benefits it brought.
“There are significant domestic issues at play and voter disgruntlement with Sandu and her government,” wrote CEPA’s Lautman. “Poverty has been rising since Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine (to 31% from 26%) and the country’s economy is only slowly recovering from recession. The European Union’s biggest-ever promise of $1.9bn in aid will help, eventually, but will take time to feed through.”
In Georgia, economic concerns are also among voter priorities, particularly in the countryside where support for GD is strongest, as bne IntelliNews has reported. Again, that suggests that joining the EU may not be a primary concern among many voters.
“The election in Georgia on October 26 constituted a stress test for the EU for the countries that, along with Ukraine, have deeper relations with Brussels in Eastern Europe ... Although polls show support of over 80% for EU accession in Georgia, the parliamentary elections in Georgia have shown that
the EU is having difficulty in influencing public perception
in these countries,” wrote bne IntelliNews columnist Denis Cenusa in an analysis of the vote.
Street billboard promoting ruling political party Georgian Dream. Tbilisi, Georgia. October, 1, 2024 / www.shutterstock.com
Georgia is one of the countries that has arguably benefited from the war in Ukraine by boosting its trade links with Russia, as trade is rerouted through the Caucasus. Voters have seen the impact of this in their pockets and may have been worried that the pro-Western opposition would end this by taking a tougher line against Moscow.
The peace issue
Most importantly, there is speculation post-election that a large part of Georgian Dream’s success was that by seeking to repair relations with Russia, it presented itself as the party of peace.
The peace narrative was a powerful tool in the party’s campaign, especially against the backdrop of the ongoing war in nearby Ukraine. “For many Georgians, the memory of the 2008 war is still fresh,” said non-resident fellow at CEPA Ketevan Chachava in a webinar ahead of the vote. “Peace, especially in our region, is a very tangible thing. Georgian Dream has successfully positioned itself as the party that can maintain stability.”
The struggles Ukraine has faced in securing weapons from the West to continue its fight against Russia are also likely a factor; Russia lies right next door to Georgia and has a military presence in the separatist Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions, while Georgians have seen from Ukraine’s experience that Western help is less certain.
Similarly, there is speculation that Stoiangolo’s rhetoric of a “balanced foreign policy” has appealed to Moldovan voters, wary of severing ties with Russia. Meanwhile, Sandu and her government have become increasingly assertive vis a vis the neighbourhood great power, even mooting the idea of joining Nato – precisely the issue that prompted Russia to launch its illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
As the second round of Moldova’s presidential election approaches on November 3, voters are set to decide whether to play it safe by not antagonising their dangerous near neighbour with Stoiangolo, or to take a chance on a different future by reaching towards EU membership with Sandu.
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