Page 64 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine December 2024

64 Opinion
bne December 2024
BALKAN BLOG
What went wrong for the EU in Georgia's and Moldova’s elections?
Clare Nuttall in Glasgow
Both Georgia and Moldova held pivotal elections in late October, each framed as a litmus test of the strength of their pro-European aspirations against Russia’s lingering influence. When the results came in, the pro-EU share of the vote was considerably lower than expected. What went wrong?
Ahead of Moldova’s October 20 referendum on the
issue of embedding EU integration into its constitution, people questioned by bne IntelliNews in Chisinau – from government officials to analysts to business representatives and international investors – saw the vote as a foregone conclusion, expecting a resounding ‘yes’ from the population.
Instead, it was an unexpectedly close vote. The ‘yes’ camp won with just 50.35% of the vote, as confirmed by Moldova’s Constitutional Court on October 31, and this outcome was swayed by the Moldovan diaspora’s strong pro-EU vote; within Moldova, a majority of voters opposed the constitutional change.
This outcome raises questions about the resilience of Moldova’s pro-EU trajectory, as incumbent President Maia Sandu – the main driving force behind Moldova’s EU accession progress in recent years – could struggle to hold onto her post in the second round of the presidential election on November 3 against moderate pro-Russian opponent Alexandr Stoianoglo. The outcome is unclear. As in the referendum, if Sandu does secure victory, polls indicate she will only do so with the help of the diaspora.
“Sandu won by far the most votes in her campaign for reelection, with 42.5% against 26% for her nearest rival. But there remains a substantial Russia-friendly vote in the country and her victory in the second round is by no means assured. Some analysts believe she may lose,” wrote Olga Lautman, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), on October 30.
In Georgia, meanwhile, the October 26 parliamentary election ended in victory for ruling Georgian Dream (GD), which took 54.23% of the vote, while the main opposition parties took
a combined total of only 37.44%.
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A booth in central Chisinau urging Moldovans to 'vote yes' in the referendum on adding EU integration to the constitution. / bne IntelliNews
“The results align with pre-election polls which predicted that Georgian Dream would win the election and garner the most votes. The ruling party’s victory therefore came as no surprise. What does raise questions is the scale of its success,” wrote Wojciech Górecki, senior fellow at the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), in a comment on the election on October 28.
“These results probably differed from the figures reported by the Central Election Commission because independent and opposition-affiliated polling centres underestimated the party and had difficulties measuring the impact of administrative leverage and various forms of pressure on citizens.”
What went wrong?
Politicians in both countries – from Sandu’s ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) and the Georgian opposition – have explicitly blamed Russia, accusing it of both helping sway public opinion through disinformation, and of outright interference in the elections.
Moldovan authorities have pointed to substantial Russian financial transfers aimed at manipulating the vote. Police chief Viorel Cernautanu said after the referendum and first round of the presidential election that over $39mn had been funnelled into Moldova from Russia via Promsvyazbank in recent months, allegedly with the goal of swaying voters in favour of Moscow’s interests. Cernautanu argued that “frauds of massive proportions” took place, with Russia-backed groups purportedly trying to buy up to 300,000 votes.
This was backed up by Renato Usatii, the third placed candidate in the election. Usatii claimed that Moscow pressured him to back Stoianoglo. He alleged Russian officials had threatened him with criminal charges if he didn’t align with Moscow’s preferred candidate.
In Georgia, an investigative report by Bloomberg published ahead of the election highlighted Russian spies’ alleged infiltration of key institutions, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the central bank. President Salome Zourabichvili described the vote as a “Russian special