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EurOil PERFORMANCE EurOil

Rystad slashes UK output forecast

after Lancaster setbacks

UK HYDROCARBON production from the UK game-changer could now only be a development
Continental Shelf (UKCS) is unlikely to exceed of technical skills for producing from fractured
Rystad has slashed 2mn barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) basement reservoirs to increase the recovery
its forecasts for again, Oslo-based Rystad Energy said in research factor.”
UK production in published on October 15, after lowering its fore- There has been long-held scepticism in the
light of fractured casts to factor in a downgrade at Hurricane Ener- industry about the ability of fractured reservoirs
basement reservoir gy’s Lancaster field. like those found at Lancaster to produce at a
disappointments. UK output peaked in 1999 at 4.3mn boepd, stable level, owing to their complex and unpre-
and has never exceeded 2mn boepd after dictable nature. They were largely ignored until
2010. But given encouraging results by Hur- Hurricane came on the scene in 2004.
ricane in fractured basement reservoirs, so The company began an exploration campaign
far untapped in the UK, Rystad had expected at the Lancaster site in 2009 and went on to drill
national output to rebound to 2.1mn boepd 11 wells across its licences, leading to the discov-
by 2035. Setbacks at Lancaster, the first frac- ery of the Lancaster, Lincoln, Halifax and War-
tured basement field to reach production, wick West fractured basement fields. It remains
have prompted the consultancy to rethink its the only company to have worked on fractured
assumptions. basement reservoirs in the UK.
Hurricane slashed its estimate last month for Lancaster was brought on stream in 2019
how much oil could be recovered from Lancas- under an early production system. But output
ter to 16mn barrels, from 37.3mn barrels previ- levels have not lived up to expectations, as reser-
ously, after discovering that the field was more voir pressure fell more rapidly than anticipated.
complex than it earlier thought. Fractured base- Hurricane’s overall 2P+2C resources for frac-
ment resources had been anticipated to account tured basement reservoirs have therefore been
for almost one fifth of future national output, lowered to 0.2bn boe, from a 2.3bn boe estimate
according to Rystad. in a competent person’s report in 2017.
The consultancy now expects UK produc- “Basement reservoir developments are recog-
tion to max out at only 1.7mn boepd in 2035 and nised throughout the world as oil-bearing and
wind down to next to nothing by mid-century. commercially productive, yet remain largely
Output averaged 1.65mn boepd in 2019 and is overlooked,” Rystad said, estimating that there
predicted to fall to 1.59mn boepd this year. are 100 fields producing from these reservoirs in
“The entire UKCS long-term production the world. But the volumes yielded are relatively
forecast has been impacted quite significantly,” small, as the reservoirs have low porosity and
Rystad’s upstream analyst Olga Savenkova low-permeability rock. Extended well tests over
commented. “The main takeaway here is that a longer period are used to assess their potential,
we may never again see any significant produc- as a shorter-duration test cannot determine a
tion upsurge in UKCS production. A possible reservoir’s size. ™

P16 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 42 22•October•2020