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European gas demand never to return

to pre-pandemic levels: IEA

EUROPE GAS demand in Europe will never again reach targets for scaling back emissions. The European
the level it did before the pandemic, the Interna- Parliament recently voted in favour of raising the
All other regions will tional Energy Agency (IEA) has said in its latest target for 2030 cuts from 40% to 60%, and has
see growth over the World Energy Outlook. also backed applying its emissions trading sys-
next two decades. In its State Policies Scenario (STEPS), which tem (ETS) to shipping.
reflects today’s announced policy intentions and In the IEA’s Sustainable Development Sce-
targets, the Paris-based agency forecasts that the nario (SDS), which assumes a surge in clean
continent’s consumption will fall from 606bn energy policies and investments that puts the
cubic metres in 2019 to 598 bcm in 2025, 570 world on track to meet the goals of the Paris
bcm in 2030 and 536 bcm in 2040. Agreement, the contraction in demand is much
This marks the first time the IEA’s STEPS case greater.
has projected that European gas demand is past Consumption will fall to just 572 bcm in
its peak. The agency has previously forecasted 2025, 476 bcm in 2030 and only 332 bcm in 2040.
that growth will be supported by the retiring of The good news for gas exporters to Europe is
coal and nuclear plants in countries such as Ger- that, under STEPS, a decline in indigenous pro-
many. While gains will still be made, they will be duction means import requirements will con-
more than offset by expanding renewables use tinue growing from 346 bcm in 2019 to 360 bcm
and greater efficiency. in 2025 and inch up to 362 bcm in 2030. They
All other continents will see continued will then contract to 351 bcm by 2040, however.
growth in consumption over the next two dec- Unsurprising, coal use will decline across
ades, with the Asia-Pacific region leading the every region under STEPs save for the Asia-Pa-
way. cific area, which will see a very modest growth.
“In Europe in the STEPS .... the challenge for In Europe, demand will plunge from 387 mega-
the gas industry is to retool itself for a different tonnes of coal equivalent to 250 in 2025, 202 in
energy future,” the IEA said in its summary. 2030 and 163 in 2040. Under SDS, coal use will
“This can come via demonstrable progress with shrink to 180 megatonnes in 2025, 116 in 2030
methane abatement, via alternative gases such and 73 in 2040.
as biomethane and low-carbon hydrogen, and Oil demand in Europe will fall from 13.3mn
technologies like carbon capture, utilisation and barrels per day in 2019 to 11.9mn bpd in 2025,
storage (CCUS). 10.9mn bpd in 2030 and 8.6mn bpd in 2040
Europe is aspiring to become the world’s first under STEPs. SDS sees consumption dwindling
climate-neutral continent by 2050, and its poli- to 11.1mn bpd in 2025, 9.0mn bpd in 2030 and
ticians continue to propose ever more ambitious 4.7mn bpd in 2040. ™

Week 42 22•October•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P17