Page 243 - Ray Dalio - Principles

For example, suppose we were trying to derive the
universal laws that explain species change over time.
Theoretically, with enough processing power and time, this

should be possible. We would need to make sense of the
formulas the computer produces, of course, to make sure that
they are not data-mined gibberish, by which I mean based on
correlations that are not causal in any way. We would do this
by constantly simplifying these rules until their elegance is
unmistakable.

Of course, given our brain’s limited capacity and

processing speed, it could take us forever to achieve a rich
understanding of all the variables that go into evolution. Is all
the simplifying and understanding that we employ in our
expert systems truly required? Maybe not. There is certainly a
risk that changes not in the tested data might still occur. But
one might argue that if our data-mining-based formulas seem
able to account for the evolution of all species through all

time, then the risks of relying on them for just the next ten,
twenty, or fifty years is relatively low compared to the benefits
of having a formula that appears to work but is not fully
understandable (and that, at the very least, might prove useful
in helping scientists cure genetic diseases).

In fact, we may be too hung up on understanding;
conscious thinking is only one part of understanding. Maybe

it’s enough that we derive a formula for change and use it to
anticipate what is yet to come. I myself find the excitement,
lower risk, and educational value of achieving a deep
understanding of cause-effect relationships much more
appealing than a reliance on algorithms I don’t understand, so

I am drawn to that path. But is it my lower-level preferences
and habits that are pulling me in this direction or is it my logic
and reason? I’m not sure. I look forward to probing the best
minds in artificial intelligence on this (and having them probe
me).

Most likely, our competitive natures will compel us to place
bigger and bigger bets on relationships computers find that are

beyond our understanding. Some of those bets will pay off,
while others will backfire. I suspect that AI will lead to