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Interpreting legislative

assembly elections 2022

RASHEED KIDWAI

HE OUTCOME OF FIVE RECENTLY CON- BJP’s election strategy of mixing
CLUDED state legislative assembly polls in Uttar
Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur ‘faith’ with ‘food’ paid rich dividends.
Twill have a major impact on the country’s politics Its hindutva ideology combined with
— making the BJP-NDA near invincible, demoralising the
Congress and shattering prospects of a united opposition welfare initiatives backed by efficient
against a resurgent BJP led by prime minister Narendra last mile delivery swelled the BJP tide
Modi in 2024.
In particular, the BJP’s performance in Uttar Pradesh
was spectacular at various levels. Yogi Adityanath became retained Punjab and wrested Uttarakhand from BJP.
the first chief minister of a national party to complete a full Certainly Congress under the Gandhi trio — Sonia, Rahul
five-year term in UP. Adityanath (49) is now a contender and Priyanka — is facing a major existential crisis. There is
for the post of prime minister in the post-Narendra Modi a possibility that by the time Lok Sabha polls of 2024 are
era. Uttar Pradesh (pop.215 million) sends an outsize 80 held, there may not be a Congress government in any state
members to Parliament’s Lok Sabha. of the Indian Union. Currently, the Congress is in power
The BJP’s election strategy of mixing ‘faith’ and ‘food’ in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and is a junior partner in
paid rich dividends. Here, faith refers to BJP’s hindutva Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
ideology which has been central to its earlier avatars such ongress is also facing an internal revolt. A section
as the Jan Sangh, Hindu Mahasabha etc. Its ideological of party dissidents — the G 23 — has been pressing
mentor Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh’s focus on Hindu for Rahul Gandhi to change his style of leadership
majoritarian assertion, drive against cow slaughter, integra- Cand become more accountable and responsible.
tion of J&K with India, building a Ram Temple in Ayodhya, According to G 23 protagonists including Ghulam Nabi
upliftment of ancient temples in Kashi, Mathura combined Azad, Kapil Sibal, Manish Tiwari, Shashi Tharoor, the im-
with welfare initiatives such as free 5 kg rice/wheat, one kg portance of personality cult in the Modi era has been to-
lentil, one litre mustard oil, salt and sugar to EWS (eco- tally under-estimated by the Congress leadership. Accord-
nomically weaker sections) households, transfer of Rs.1,100 ing to a report, G 23 leaders were flabbergasted that at a
for poor school-going children backed by efficient last mile recent meeting, Rahul said that leaders’ personality is not
delivery systems, helped the BJP and Yogi Adityanath tide important. Many Congress insiders say the great grandson
over adverse factors such as anti-incumbency, caste divides of Jawaharlal Nehru should know that in the first general
and farmers unrest. elections of 1951, the Congress slogan was: “A vote for the
The BJP’s resounding electoral success has a message Congress is a Vote for Nehru!” Similarly during most part
for the opposition, particularly for the rudderless Congress. of her political career, Indira Gandhi was a brand like Na-
In the Lok Sabha, 1951-69, India did not have a recognised rendra Modi — loved and adored by a sizeable section of
opposition to the Congress party or a leader of the opposi- society and disliked by a minority.
tion. Despite this, the sangh parivar (RSS family) stuck to Strange as it may sound, despite its vintage, Congress
its basic agenda. Finally electoral gains accrued in 1996 and seems to have lost its roots in society. As a result, it is fall-
the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP-NDA government ruled ing between two stools on emotive issues. Meanwhile, the
from 1999-2004. BJP has informally developed a vast network of functional
According to one estimate, the RSS-sangh parivar have ties with various religious orders and sects. In every caste-
137 affiliated outfits which indirectly work to propagate its based sabha or sammelan, the party has active and vocal
socio-economic and political agenda. Sonia and Rahul Gan- sympathisers. Moreover, BJP’s well-oiled machinery of so-
dhi need to ponder how many such affiliates the Congress cial media warriors and offline networks have established
has. Instead of developing a dedicated cadre, the Congress two-way communication with millions. Congress may have
has started relying on liberals and the Left to fill the void some goodwill, but it has not developed a competitive net-
without the awareness that the liberal discourse is often work of influencers from panchayat to Parliament.
very different from the culture of conservative sections of Time is running out for the Congress and the Gandhis
society, including the majority of Congress leaders at lower who entertain a simpleton hope that one day, voters/masses
levels of the party hierarchy. will become disillusioned with Modi-Shah-BJP-Yogi and
The BJP-NDA’s gains on March 10, 2022 (when the as- return to the Congress fold. This is highly unlikely.
sembly poll results were announced) has ensured that it will
be an easy passage for its nominee to be elected President
of India in July. This would not have been the case had the (Rasheed Kidwai is a Delhi-based columnist, author of Sonia A Biography
Samajwadi Party-RLD combine won UP, and Congress had and visiting fellow, Observer Research Foundation)

30 EDUCATIONWORLD APRIL 2022