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historical societies according to strict
geographical limits, so that if some people
survived and migrated to find new natural
resources they would constitute a new society.
By this criterion, even very advanced societies
have collapsed irreversibly and the West could
too. But it wouldn’t necessarily mean
annihilation.
For that reason, many researchers avoid the
word collapse, and talk instead about a rapid
loss of complexity. When the Roman Empire
broke up, new societies emerged, but their
hierarchies, cultures and economies were
less sophisticated, and people lived shorter, MARC RIBOUD/MAGNUM
unhealthier lives. That kind of across-the-
board loss of complexity is unlikely today,
says Turchin, but he doesn’t rule out milder
versions of it: the break-up of the European long game. New psychology research may People who have grown up in a turbulent society
Union, say, or the US losing its empire in help to explain why that is the case. tend to have children who renounce violence
the form of NATO and close allies such as Cognitive scientists recognise two
South Korea. broad modes of thought – a fast, automatic, people must have seen the danger ahead?“The
On the other hand, some people, such as relatively inflexible mode, and a slower, train had left the station,” says Cohen, and the
Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex more analytical, flexible one. Each has its uses, forward-thinking folk were not steering it.
Systems Institute in Massachusetts, see this depending on the context, and their relative This is the first time anyone has attempted
kind of global change as a shift up in frequency in a population has long been to link the evolution of societies with human
complexity, with highly centralised structures assumed to be stable. David Rand, psychology, and the researchers admit their
such as national governments giving way to a psychologist at Yale University, though, model is simple, for now. And while Rand
less centralised, overarching networks of argues that populations might actually and his colleagues make no attempt to guide
control.“The world is becoming an integrated cycle between the two over time. policy, they do think their model suggests
whole,”says Bar-Yam. Say a society has a transportation a general direction we might look in for
Some scientists, Bar-Yam included, are problem. A small group of individuals thinks remedies. “Education has got to be part of
even predicting a future where the nation analytically and invents the car. The problem the answer,” says Cohen, adding that there
state gives way to fuzzy borders and global is solved, not only for them but for millions could be more emphasis on analytical
networks of interlocking organisations, of others besides, and because a far larger thinking in the classroom.
with our cultural identity split between But Tainter says trying to instil more
our immediate locality and global “Technological innovation forethought might be a pipe dream. If
regulatory bodies. behavioural economics has taught us
However things pan out, almost nobody may not be able to bail us anything, he says, it is that human beings are
thinks the outlook for the West is good. out as it has in the past” much more emotional than rational when it
“You’ve got to be very optimistic to think that comes to decision-making. He thinks a more
the West’s current difficulties are just a blip number of people have been relieved of pressing issue to tackle is the dwindling rate
on the screen,”says historian Ian Morris of thinking analytically – at least in this one of invention relative to investment in R & D,
Stanford University in California, author of domain – there is a shift in the population as the world’s problems become harder to
Why the West Rules – For Now. So, can we do towards automatic thinking. solve. “I foresee a pattern in the future where
anything to soften the blow? This happens every time a new technology technological innovation is not going to be
Turchin says that by manipulating the is invented that renders the environment able to bail us out as it has in the past,” he says.
forces that fuel the cycles, by, for example, more hospitable. Once large numbers of So, is the West really on the ropes? Perhaps.
introducing more progressive taxes to address people use the technology without foresight, But ultimately its survival will depend on the
income equality and the exploding public problems start to stack up. Climate change speed at which people can adapt. If we don’t
debt, it might be possible to avert disaster. resulting from the excess use of fossil fuels is reduce our dependency on fossil fuels, tackle
And Motesharrei thinks we should rein in just one example. Others include overuse of inequality and find a way to stop elites from
population growth to levels his model antibiotics leading to microbial resistance, squabbling among themselves, things will not
indicates are sustainable. These exact levels and failing to save for retirement. end well. In Tainter’s view, if the West makes it
vary over time, depending on how many Jonathan Cohen, a psychologist at Princeton through, it will be more by luck than by good
resources are left and how sustainably – University who developed the theory with judgement. “We are a species that muddles
or otherwise – we use them. Rand, says it could help solve a long-standing through,” he says. “That’s all we’ve ever done,
The problem with these kinds of solutions, puzzle regarding societies heading for ruin: and all we’ll ever do.” ■
however, is that humans haven’t proved why did they keep up their self-destructive
themselves to be great at playing the behaviour even though the more analytical Laura Spinney is a writer based in Paris

20 January 2018 | NewScientist | 31