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COVER STORY

There are disturbing hints that Western

civilisation is starting to crumble.

Laura Spinney investigates

H,thegoodolddays,whenpredictions Using science to predict the future isn’t
that“theendisnigh”wereseenonly easy, not least because both “collapse” and
Aon sandwichboards,andthedoom- “Western civilisation” are difficult to define.
mongerswhocarriedthemwereeasyenough We talk about the collapse of the Roman
toignore. Empire in the middle of the first millennium,
If only things had stayed so simple. The for example, but there is plenty of evidence
sandwich boards have mostly gone and the that the empire existed in some form for
world is still here, but the gloomy predictions centuries afterwards and that its influence
keep coming, and not all of them are based lingers today. The end of Ancient Egypt was
on creative interpretations of religious texts. more of a change in the balance of power than
Scientists, historians and politicians alike have a catastrophic event in which everyone died.
begun to warn that Western culture is reaching So, when we talk about collapse, do we mean
a critical juncture. Cycles of inequality and that people lose everything and go back to the
resource use are heading for a tipping point dark ages? Or that it’s going to be socially and
that in many past civilisations precipitated politically turbulent for a while?
political unrest, war and finally collapse. Western civilisation is a similarly slippery
For the most part, though, people are concept. Roughly speaking, it covers parts of
carrying on as usual, shopping for their next the world where the dominant cultural norms
holiday or posing on social media. In fact, originated in Western Europe, including North
many people seem blissfully unaware that America, Australia and New Zealand. Beyond
collapse might be imminent. Are Westerners that, though, the lines get blurrier. Other
doing the modern equivalent of sitting around civilisations, such as China, were built on
eating grapes while the barbarians hammer different sets of cultural norms, yet thanks
on the doors? And more importantly, does to globalisation, defining where Western
science have any ideas about what is really culture starts and ends is far from easy.
going on, what might happen next and how Despite these difficulties, some scientists
people could turn things around? and historians are analysing the rise and fall of
The idea that Western power and influence ancient civilisations to look for patterns that
is in gradual decline, perhaps as a prelude to might give us a heads-up on what is coming.
a precipitous fall, has been around for a while. So is there any evidence that the West is
But it has gained a new urgency with recent reaching its end game? According to Peter
political events, not least the election of Turchin, an evolutionary anthropologist at the
US president Donald Trump. For some, his University of Connecticut, there are certainly
turning away from international commitments some worrying signs. Turchin was a population
is part of fulfilling his promise to “make biologist studying boom-and-bust cycles in
America great again” by concentrating on its predator and prey animals when he realised
own interests. For others, it’s a dangerous that the equations he was using could also
move that threatens to undermine the whole describe the rise and fall of ancient civilisations.
world order. Meanwhile, over in the old world, In the late 1990s, he began to apply these
Europe is mired in its own problems. equations to historical data, looking for >

20 January 2018 | NewScientist | 29