Page 243 - Crisis in Higher Education

214 • Crisis in Higher Education

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best education. The balance of the e-learning discussion considers 100%
online courses.
Proponents argue that online learning will eventually eliminate tradi-
tional education methods whether applied to K-12 or higher education.
They further suggest that massive open online courses (MOOC) will revo-
lutionize how knowledge is presented. MOOCs are available to anyone
with Internet access and are often free of charge. The Khan Academy is the
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most commonly known entity that provides these courses, but institu-
tions including Stanford University and the University of Michigan have
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some offerings. The claim is that online learning will drive down the cost
of education by eliminating waste, bloated administration, and overpaid,
underworked tenured faculty. 13
There is little doubt that higher education will move along the continuum
from where it is currently toward the point where all courses and programs
are 100% online, closing dormitories and classrooms. What is unclear is
whether it goes all the way and how long will it take. New technology, espe-
cially technology that incites radical change, goes through a series of stages.

1. Ignored: At first, people do not see its potential and how it might be
used. Those who have some understanding of how the technology
might be used to lower costs and improve outcomes have a vested
interest in the status quo so they ignore the opportunity and may
even resist change. This was the case with electronic health records,
where the advantages were clear and the technology was feasible for
decades before it was actually implemented.
2. Overhyped: The rise and fall: At a later point, people begin to see the
advantages of the new way of doing things, and there are wild projec-
tions about how quickly and how much change will take place. The
online surge in the late 1990s, which was about 20 years ago, led to
the tech-bubble in the stock market. At the time, online retail was
supposed to “lay waste to” brick-and-mortar retail. To provide a pic-
ture of the rise and fall of online retail, follow Amazon’s stock price.
In 1997, its stock price was less than $2 per share, but in 1999, during
the growing tech-bubble, it rose to more than $110. In 2001, after
the bubble burst, it dropped to about $5. During the bubble, many,
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many technology companies went out of business. Online retail may
never entirely replace brick-and-mortar stores, but it will continue to
grow and take market share from them. It seems reasonable to think
of online learning in the same manner.