Page 31 - The Economist

The Economist December 9th 2017 United States 31
2 and support for Mr Moore in the primaries Child brides dance for girls and a decline in marriage
in Alabama’s 67 counties was strongly cor- more generally. Virginia, Texas and New
related with the Trump vote in 2016. State of the unions York have introduced laws in the past cou-
Still, Doug Jones, the Democratic candi- ple of years that restrict marriage to legal
date, has a chance ofvictory. An average of adults. Connecticut has banned marriage
publicly available polls gives Mr Moore a before the age of16. In 11otherstateslegisla-
lead of only 2.3 percentage points. But this tion restricting child marriage is in the
CHICAGO
estimate suffers from three big sources of Fewer14-year-olds are getting married. pipeline; six of these (Arizona, Florida,
uncertainty. The first is that polling for Sen- Butitstill happens Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and
ate races is especially unreliable: The Econ- Pennsylvania) are consideringa law to ban
omist’s review of historic polling for such EXUAL mores change faster than the marriage under18 with no exceptions.
races from 1998 to 2014 suggests an average Slaw does. This has been the case with Still, it remains startling that between
error of six percentage points. Second, child marriage, which is generally defined 2000 and 2015 more than 207,000 minors
many pollsters do not construct rigorously as involving those under 18 but also in- got married, according to an investigation
representative samples in Alabama, rely- cludes girls (for almost all ofthem are girls) by Frontline, a public television pro-
ing instead on lower-quality methodolo- younger than 16. Depending on the law in gramme. More than two-thirds of them
gies (like focusing on voters with landlines different states, older men are allowed to were 17, but 985 were only 14 and ten were
and ignoring those with mobiles). Third, marry minors if they get parental consent, just 12. Human Rights Watch and other ac-
all polls implicitly forecast which voters a judge’sapproval,oreven justthenod ofa tivists are campaigning for a simple sol-
will show up on election day—something clerk. Stories about the Republican candi- ution for all states, which would end the
especially hard to do in a low-turnout spe- date for the vacant Alabama senate seat, patchwork of rules and loopholes: chang-
cial election. Roy Moore, and his pursuit ofteenage girls ingthe age ofmarriage to 18, with no excep-
According to conventional wisdom, Mr when he was more than double their age tion granted. Jeanne Smoot of the Tahirih
Jones needs a high turnout among black have caused disgust, at least among those Justice Centre, an advocacy group, con-
votersin orderto win. Theytypically make who believe the accusers. Legally, though, cedes that there is a big difference between
up a quarter of the electorate and heavily Mr Moore could almost certainly have a girl of14 and a girl of17, but she points out
tilt towards the Democrats. He is spending married even his 14-year-old accuser had that both have similar legal status. Neither
the last days of the campaign attending he wished to do so, since at the time14 was bride could stay in any kind of shelter, for
fish fries at black churches, emphasising the minimum age for marriage under Ala- instance, if she wanted to escape. And nei-
his prosecution of two KKK members who bama state law (it is now16). ther could file for divorce, work legally or
bombed a church in Birmingham and ap- America hasalwaysallowed such child sign a rental lease.
pearingwith John Lewis, a civil-rights icon. marriages, which happen mostly in con- Surprisingly, opponents of a ban on
The effectiveness of such efforts remains servative religious communities and rural child marriage can be found across the po-
uncertain: after decades in the political areas. Yet, as in the rest of the world, the litical spectrum. On the rightsome libertar-
doldrums, the Democrats in Alabama are practice has become much less common. ians and religious conservatives argue that
no longer good at mobilising voters in Whereas 23,500 minors got married in marriage should be a choice made apart
statewide contests. According to a knowl- 2000, by 2010 the number had dropped to from the state; that married minors can re-
edgeable source, the campaign hopes to a little over 9,000, reflecting changing so- duce the numberofsingle motherson wel-
push blackturnout to 27% ofthe total to be cial norms, higher rates of school atten- fare; and that religious customs and prac-
in with a chance. Evidence from special tices need to be protected. On the left, the
elections earlier this year is not encourag- American Civil Liberties Union and
ing: black voters have made up a smaller Planned Parenthood have also defended
percentage of voters than usual, according the practice in the past because banning it
to numberscrunched atThe Economist’sre- would intrude on the right to marry.
quest by 0ptimus, a Republican-leaning Despite these arguments against a fed-
data firm. eral law, the federal government has been
Instead, the key to a Jones victory is a staunch campaigner against child brides
turnout among whites, which itself de- in the developing world. In 2012, Hillary
pends on whether the scandals around Mr Clinton, then secretaryofstate, went on an
Moore keep people away from the polls. 11-day tour of Africa. After meeting Graça
Among white voters, who favour him by a Machel, Nelson Mandela’s wife, a cam-
whopping 35 points, roughly one-third paigner against child marriage, Mrs Clin-
seem to be persuadable by Mr Jones. A re- ton affirmed America’s commitment to
cent survey showed that 71% of Republi- ending the practice. Marriage before the
cans believed the allegations against him age of18, she said, meansgirlsare less likely
to be false (compared with 37% of Republi- to get an education and “more likely to en-
cans nationally). The same poll shows the counter life-threatening health problems,
mind-addling effects ofpartisanship: near- which short-changes and short-cuts them
lyone-quarterofwhite evangelicalsin Ala- and sometimes theirlives.”
bama believe it is legitimate to defend sex Africa has made progress since Mrs
with minors on Biblical grounds. The Clinton’s visit. This year Malawi banned
Jonescampaign isrunningadvertisements marriage under 18. Gambia and Tanzania
encouraging voters to spoil their ballots, as both outlawed it in 2016. For good or ill, de-
Richard Shelby, Alabama’s senior Republi- veloping countries see America as a role
can senator, has already declared he will. model. When Heather Barr of Human
Faced with the choice between a Democrat Rights Watch researched a report on child
and someone accused of sexually assault- marriage in Nepal, several Nepalese asked
ing teenagers, some might at least compro- her why they should abolish child mar-
mise by stayingat home. 7 riage when it was allowed in America. 7