Page 31 - MIN VOS 5 MAART 2016
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26 AWEMainta Diasabra, 05 Maart 2016
2008 financial crisis. Economic Figure 5. Real per capita GDP unchanged. As stated above, this environmental and physical space
recovery and expansion of harbour Aruba and Sint Maarten, 1980- effect is compounded when taking is inevitably running out, often
facilities brought a renewed 2010 (US$; CPI 1996=100) into account that the proportion described in terms of ‘carrying
growth until the present day. of economically active persons capacity’ has been made before.
The available macro-economic The Sint Maarten curve in figure to the total population actually It is obvious even to the casual
model for Sint Maarten indicates 5 clearly shows an initial gain increased through immigration, observer and unfortunately also
that the (direct) contributions of in productivity similar to Aruba as immigrants mostly fall into to many visitors that the intensity
total stay over tourism and cruise associated with the tourism boom economically active age groups. of the tourism industry and the
tourism to GDP relate as 56-44 of the 1980s, again levelling off as increasing population density
in favour of the former. Based soon as the tourism sector becomes When real per capita GDP is negatively affect the tourism
on this, a 20% drop in stay over fully dominant in the economy. As used as a measure of average product itself and the quality
tourism combined with a 250% we have seen earlier, in both cases income, the conclusion is similar. of life in general. The concept
rise in cruise tourists compared to further development does increase The trend is not rising despite of ‘carrying capacity’ however
1991 levels should have resulted the volume of tourism as well as the the rapid growth of total GDP. does not come with many useful
in a real GDP growth of more than volume of the labour force, partly The usual reservations brought operational indicators. Indeed,
the roughly 60% now recorded. through immigration. However, forward when using real per although theoretically a Caribbean
Therefore, as in the case of Aruba, the quality of economic activity capita GDP as income measure tourist version of Singapore may
there is a lack of translation of in terms of productivity remains only make matters worse. To not be out of the question, the
tourism volume growth into real name one important factor; in cost of compensating for the
GDP increase, and therefore a lack a situation with heavy foreign negative externalities involved
of productivity growth. investment, part of profits and will probably become prohibitive.
interest comprised in GDP will
Figure 4. Sint Maarten selected flow overseas, resulting in a GNI The data presented here paint
tourism indicators and real GDP smaller than GDP. Assuming the a picture of a rather consistent
indices (1991=100) part of value added flowing to extensive growth model over
In figure 5, for both islands, real foreign recipients is more or less several decades, which makes
per capita GDP is chosen as an constant, this would not change it a very real question why no
indicator for labour productivity. the horizontal direction of the per successful attempt was made in
The Aruban development clearly capita GDP trend, and it would just either country to shift economic
shows the crash associated shift it to a lower level. development towards a more
with the closure of the Lago in productive, less immigration
1985, and the subsequent rapid What will the future bring for dependent and less space-
recovery. After 1990 the gain in Aruba and Sint Maarten? consuming direction. After all,
real per capita GDP levels off, not even outside the context of island
structurally increasing again until Combining the immigration- limitations, warnings about
the present day. dependent, extensive economic the weariness on the demand
growth trends outlined above with side of tourism and the ensuing
the obvious spatial constraints of need for a tourist destination
both islands, the outlook for Aruba to constantly reinvent itself go
and Sint Maarten seems bleak. back to Butler’s tourism life cycle
concept of the 1980s. Aruba and
The observation that Sint Maarten have been residing
in the ‘consolidation stage’ for
decades, and staving off the
ensuing ‘stagnation stage’ will not
be successful much longer.
While Aruba and Sint Maarten
seem to be good examples of
dedicated, full-blown ‘speciation’
both islands seem to lack the
real strategic flexibility found in
some other islands to effectively
take their tourism industry to the
next level. The fact that smaller
scale, higher value added tourism
development is in fact possible
in the Caribbean is shown by
examples like Anguilla, in the
direction of high-end luxury
tourism, or by Dominica, in the
