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BUSINESSMonday 15 February 2016

Japan’s economy contracts in latest setback for Abe recovery 

ELAINE KURTENBACH              In this Nov. 17, 2015, file photo, a shopper walks past a clothing shop display at a shopping street                                  than other faster growing
AP Business Writer            of Ginza area in Tokyo.                                                                                                                economies in Southeast
TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s                                                                                                                                                 Asia and elsewhere.
economy contracted at a                                                                                                                           Associated Press   Consumer demand fell
1.4 percent annual pace                                                                                                                                              more than expected in
in the last quarter as weak   Japan’s central bank has     ally uninterested in borrow-   ing down excess capac-                                                     the last quarter, dipping
consumer demand and           already resorted to impos-   ing.                           ity built up during decades                                                to a four-year low, offset-
slower exports battered       ing negative interest rates  Growth also has been           of fast growth, and have                                                   ting moderate growth in
the recovery.                 on some bank deposits it     stunted by slow increases in   held back on domestic in-                                                  business investment, said
The preliminary data,         holds to help spur more      wages, which leave house-      vestments, viewing their                                                   Marcel Thieliant of Capital
which may be revised,         lending, though cash-rich    holds less inclined to spend.  shrinking and aging home                                                   Economics.
were slightly worse than      companies appear gener-      Companies are still draw-      market as less attractive                                                  He expects consumer de-
expected and were a set-                                                                                                                                             mand to perk up in com-
back from the 1.3 percent                                                                                                                                            ing months, in anticipation
expansion in the previ-                                                                                                                                              of a sales tax hike, to 10
ous quarter. The economy                                                                                                                                             percent from 8 percent, in
shrank 0.4 percent in Oc-                                                                                                                                            April 2017.
tober-December from the                                                                                                                                              “However, this should be
previous quarter.                                                                                                                                                    short-lived, as activity will
Despite the lackluster re-                                                                                                                                           almost certainly slump
port, Tokyo’s main share in-                                                                                                                                         once the tax has been
dex, the Nikkei 225, jumped                                                                                                                                          raised,” Thieliant said. “The
4.4 percent to 15,615.84                                                                                                                                             upshot is that the Bank of
in early trading Monday,                                                                                                                                             Japan still has plenty of
helped by a weakening in                                                                                                                                             work to do to boost price
the Japanese yen.                                                                                                                                                    pressures.”
The latest contraction, the                                                                                                                                          Despite the zigzags in
second in 2015, adds to                                                                                                                                              growth last year, the econ-
worries that Prime Minis-                                                                                                                                            omy eked out a 0.4 per-
ter Shinzo Abe’s strategy                                                                                                                                            cent expansion in 2015,
for reviving the economy                                                                                                                                             better than the flat-lining
through inflation fueled by                                                                                                                                          of 2014. But that pace of
massive monetary easing is                                                                                                                                           growth falls far short of
not delivering as promised.                                                                                                                                          the expansion needed to
The slowdown in China,                                                                                                                                               achieve Abe’s goal of a
one of Japan’s biggest ex-                                                                                                                                           600 trillion yen ($5.3 trillion)
port markets, has been a                                                                                                                                             economy by 2020.
further hindrance.                                                                                                                                                   With the Japanese cur-
                                                                                                                                                                     rency at a level of about
                                                                                                                                                                     113.5 yen to the dollar, and
                                                                                                                                                                     some economists forecast-
                                                                                                                                                                     ing it could rise further as
                                                                                                                                                                     investors seek refuge from
                                                                                                                                                                     financial market volatility in
                                                                                                                                                                     a traditional “safe haven,”
                                                                                                                                                                     corporate profits will likely
                                                                                                                                                                     grow less than in recent
                                                                                                                                                                     years, adding to pressures
                                                                                                                                                                     on growth.
                                                                                                                                                                     Abe has been maneuver-
                                                                                                                                                                     ing ahead of an election
                                                                                                                                                                     for the upper house of Ja-
                                                                                                                                                                     pan’s parliament this sum-
                                                                                                                                                                     mer. One possible tactic to
                                                                                                                                                                     reassure voters and boost
                                                                                                                                                                     support for his ruling Lib-
                                                                                                                                                                     eral Democrats would be
                                                                                                                                                                     to postpone, for a second
                                                                                                                                                                     time, the tax hike meant to
                                                                                                                                                                     help mend tattered public
                                                                                                                                                                     finances.q
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