Page 35 - Phelan Energy Green Ammonia Plant Egypt

Green Ammonia Pricing and Market factors – a Phelan Energy Group Perspective
o Inourviewtherewillemergetwodistinctivemarkets,thatwillhaveminimalinfluenceofeachother-oneforGrey(Dirty) Ammonia and one from Green (Clean) ammonia.
o Themarkethasthefollowingthreecoreinfluencefactors,thatwilldeterminecurrentandfuturepricing.
Decarbonization Commitments
However, the future is set in stone arising from global commitments made as part of
the Paris Agreement and other National and Multinational Company commitments and ambitions.
Carbon Credits
The EU carbon Credits ETS only went above €20/ton in 2019, it then slowly increased into the early €60/ton, until mid-August 2022 when it increased sharply to €98/ton.
This has now reversed in one month, to a current price of €67/ton, similar level to November 2021.
EU has not decided how to apply Carbon Credits in its ETS system to imported Green Ammonia. The imported green product will benefit from Carbon Credits whether within the sale price or as an independent subsidy available to the primary producer.
Current Market
In early 2021, the 5-year average price of Anhydrous Ammonia was running at around $550/ton, with a low of $422/ton in November 2020.This increased by over $1 000/ton from late 2021, mainly due to the increase of gas prices arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This impact was particularly pronounced in the European market. Prices are now at a level of $950-990/ton in September 2022, as gas prices stabilize and demand for expensive fertilizers falter.
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