Page 37 - Phelan Energy Green Ammonia Plant Egypt
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Current and future production costs of renewable ammonia, compared with production cost range for low-carbon fossil ammonia
The second IRENA graph, from their ‘Innovation Outlook – Green Ammonia’ published in June 2022.
This graph outlines their view of the current and future costs of Green Ammonia and compares them to the Low-Carbon fossil fuel Ammonia.
This show the current cost of production of Green Ammonia to be between $700 - $1,400/ton, with a steady downward trajectory to $500 - $900/ton by 2030.Meanwhile they forecast that Low-Carbon fossil fuel grey Ammonia will be steady in a range of $240 - $480/ton for the next twenty years.
This forecast does not address the current high gas costs, and depends on the successful development of CCS. Their cost forecast for Green Ammonia, is based on high priced European and US manufacturing equipment and installation costs, and RE at prices much higher than Egypt.
The significant portion of their price drop to 2030 is based on the reduction in the cost of RE. We agree that this cost will drop, but not at the pace they forecast.
© Phelan Energy Group
