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Don’t Make Me Say I Told You So 171
December 31, 2019
The results of this survey show that the mean for the
strategists’ predictions of the closing price on December 31,
2019 was 2,932. That would be a gain of approximately 18%
for the calendar year 2019. The actual close of the S&P on
December 31, was 3,230, a gain of approximately 29% from the
close of 2,485 on December 31, 2019, the date that this survey
was published. So if the mean for the strategists’ predictions
for the S&P was a gain of around 18%, and the actual gain was
almost 29%, what is the value of this survey? What is the value in
financial outlets publishing these surveys and predictions each
year? Doesn’t that show that these predictions are nothing more
than guesses, and lack any real value or benefit to investors?
The Danger of “Expert Opinions”
On October 9, 2009, Peter Brimelow from MarketWatch
interviewed the authors of two successful newsletters.
Brimelow says that he checks in with them regularly because
“they are kind enough to provide updates after every market
close, very convenient for journalists with evening deadlines.”
Helpful to the people reading Brimelow’s article? No, helpful
“for journalists with evening deadlines.”
Chapter 4: The Most Common Investor Mistakes
