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OTE/SPH
 OTE/SPH
 JWBK119-08
                                Current and Future Reality Trees
        96 August 31, 2006  2:56  Char Count= 0



              CRT  entity                 Page         Ellipse       Entity from
                               UDE
                                        connector     connector     another page
                      Figure 8.1 Flowchart shapes used in drawing up a CRT.


        information to kick-start the construction of the CRT. Reorganization of the ideas is
        required every now and then throughout the whole process.
          The third step is to translate the items into CRT entities. These are flowchart shapes.
        The commonly used CRT entities are shown in Figure 8.1.
          First, assign the UDEs. Recall that typically all whys are UDEs by definition (Figure
        8.2). Then add the entities to the UDEs as shown in Figure 8.3.
          Next, rearrange the boxes to remove redundancy. In Figure 8.3, W3 and N2 are the
        same and one of them can be removed. At this point, you may feel that ‘User wasted
        time waiting to be served’could be one of the reasons why user feels frustrated, and an
        arrow can be added to show the cause-and-effect relationship. Also you may realize
        that ‘Operators cannot cope with the number of calls’probably would not cause ‘User
        feels frustrated’ but affect the waiting time, so the arrow can be shifted to point to the
        right box. The result is shown in Figure 8.4.
          Now select a branch and start expanding it. Add causes to each branch, refine the
        statement if needed, and test the cause--effect relationship using if--then statements. If
        the cause--effect relationship is insufficient, add the ellipse connector (if two or more
        causes need to happen together to bring about the effect) or additional condition
        (Figure 8.5),
          Next re-examine the CRT, asking the following questions:

        1. Are the UDEs appropriate and sufficient? That is, are they bad enough to be called
          UDEs,andwilladdressingthemsuccessfullyenablethegoaltobereached?Remove
          any inappropriate UDEs and add new ones if necessary.
        2. Are the cause--effect relationships real and sufficient? That is, if the cause happened,
          then will the effect follow? Feel free to move the entities around and add ellipses if
          needed.
        3. Might anything at a higher level make worse a cause--effect statement at a lower
          level? If so, add a negative reinforcing loop. In Figure 8.6, operators cannot cope
          with the workload which will likely cause higher turnover rate, so a negative
          reinforcing loop is added.



                                                            W3. User
                      W1a. User          W1b. User
                        feels           wastes time        wastes time
                       frustrated         waiting        going through all
                                                           the options

                           Figure 8.2 Assignment of undesirable effects.
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