Page 78 - The Complexity Perspective 20 02 18

In business, the chances of contextual and systems conditions
repeating exactly are close to zero, plus, even knowing the starting
conditions can be impossible. The lesson from the butterfly effect

metaphor is then that uncertainty of outcomes is a permanent
condition and a capacity to react at speed to conditions as they occur is
critical.

Nonlinearity Can Lead to Unintended Consequences

If we cannot know starting conditions exactly and the butterfly effect
obtains then the consequences of an intervention into a complex
business context cannot be predicted with entire certainty. This is the

world of 'unintended consequences'.

Nonlinearity Pervades Almost Everything in

Complexity

Path Dependence

Path dependence can be defined as "a social process that exhibits
positive feedback and thus generates patterns of historical

development”. For example, goal choices in a business (system) are
informed by past choices and in turn inform future goal choices. We
can use path dependency and positive feedback interchangeably.

Context

All business contexts involve feedback loops that drive market growth,

decline and stability. Every shift in a context resulting from the actions
of an agent changes the basis for all subsequent choices by competitors
and so on ad infinitum.

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