Page 18 - Complexity Perspective_Neat

We’re entering an age of acceleration. The models
underlying society at every level, which are
largely based on a linear model of change, are
going to have to be redefined. Because of the
explosive power of exponential growth, the 21st
century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of
progress at today’s rate of progress;
organizations have to be able to redefine
themselves at a faster and faster pace.

Originally published in Perspectives on Business
Innovation. Published on KurzweilAI.net May 1, 2003
Forecasting

The above means that prediction becomes more difficult. Short-term
forecasting as a linear extension of last year's sales may still be a
'plausible' way of creating next year's budget. But, unless you have a
monopoly on a basic good, projecting out five or ten years is likely to
be a hopeless exercise. It was the recognition of this reality that led
Shell to create 'scenario planning'. The practical process of projecting
alternate futures, however, is still influenced by the momentum of the
current business and its existing resources. The idea of projecting a
disruption - a rip in the fabric of the context - is a valuable extension
of scenario thinking but it has practical limitations. Despite
Christensen's theories, the timing and sources of all possible
disruptions are almost impossible to predict and almost
certainly impossible to provide for in total.

It is the realization of this unpredictable instability that
underpins calls for adaptive organizations that can sense
and rapidly respond; organizations that create strategy
through implementation.
If the capacity to react at speed is core to winning during a period of Emergence
then understanding the behavioral restrictions that can kill speedy response is
vital. Business Games Works has developed a playable, hyper-competitive
game simulation called Leading in a World of Disruption that
addresses this issue.

The Wave Effect

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