Page 17 - Complexity Perspective_Neat

1. If history is driven by individuals who act only on what they
know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their
actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course
of (say, technological) progress is merely conjecture. We will be
equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will
lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the
time.

2. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of
preserved past events and innovations with the needs and
insights of individuals today, then as time goes on the number of
these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible
connections stimulates the process of innovation to not only
continue but to accelerate.

3. Finally, 'stigmergic action' is based on interactions between
agents. If communications improve, interactions may increase.
This will underpin a further acceleration in the rate of invention
and innovation. Given the Internet with its capability of linking
everyone on the planet to everyone else, we should be in the

early stages of a massive acceleration in technological progress.

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