Page 61 - Complexity Perspective_Neat

Technically, in the mathematics of chaos theory, the 'butterfly effect' is
the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change
in a starting parameter can result in large differences in outcome.

The term 'butterfly effect, was coined by Edward Lorenz (building on
thoughts by French mathematician and engineer Henri Poincaré and
American mathematician and philosopher Norbert Wiener). The name
is derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado
(the exact time of formation, the exact path that is taken) being
influenced by minor perturbations such as the flapping of the wings of
a distant butterfly several weeks earlier. Lorenz discovered the effect
when he observed that runs of his weather model with initial condition
data that was rounded in a seemingly inconsequential manner would
fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded input data.

A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly
different outcome. Lorenz linked the concept of instability to the
properties positive feedback loops. The amplification of small
differences.

In business, the chances of contextual and systems conditions
repeating exactly are close to zero, plus, even knowing the starting
conditions can be impossible. The lesson from the butterfly effect
metaphor is then that uncertainty of outcomes is a permanent
condition and a capacity to react at speed to conditions as they occur is
critical.

Nonlinearity Can Lead to Unintended Consequences

If we cannot know starting conditions exactly and the butterfly effect
obtains then the consequences of an intervention into a complex
business context cannot be predicted with entire certainty. This is the
world of 'unintended consequences'.

Nonlinearity Pervades Almost Everything in
Complexity

Path Dependence

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