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A10   WORLD NEWS
               Tuesday 18 sepTember 2018
            Last stand: Syria's rebel Idlib prepares for a losing battle




            By SARAH EL DEEB                                                                                                    complicated  by  the  pres-
            Associated Press                                                                                                    ence  of  radical  fighters.
            BEIRUT  (AP)  —  They  dug                                                                                          By  backing  the  National
            trenches  around  towns,                                                                                            Front,  it  argued  it  can
            reinforced  caves  for  cov-                                                                                        draw  fighters  away  from
            er  and  put  up  sand  bags                                                                                        the  al-Qaida-linked  HTS,
            around their positions. They                                                                                        the dominant power in the
            issued calls to arms, urging                                                                                        province,  forcing  it  to  dis-
            young  men  to  join  in  the                                                                                       solve  and  creating  a  new
            defense of Idlib, the Syrian                                                                                        opposition  force  ready  to
            province where opposition                                                                                           negotiate  with  the  Syrian
            fighters  expect  to  make                                                                                          government.
            their last stand against Rus-                                                                                       The  strategy  has  had  lim-
            sian-  and  Iranian-backed                                                                                          ited success.
            government  troops  they                                                                                            The National Front in recent
            have fought for years.                                                                                              months  gained  control  of
            This  time,  it's  "surrender  or                                                                                   territory  in  Idlib  from  HTS,
            die."                                                                                                               which  still  controls  nearly
            As  the  decisive  stand  for                                                                                       70 percent of the province.
            their last stronghold looms,                                                                                        HTS began to show signs of
            this motley crew of tens of                                                                                         splits  and  two  weeks  ago,
            thousands  of  opposition                                                                                           Turkey declared it a terrorist
            fighters,  including  some   In this Sunday, Sept. 9, 2018 file photo, fighters with the Free Syrian army eat in a cave where they   group.
            of the world's most radical   live, in the outskirts of the northern town of Jisr al-Shughur, Syria, west of the city of Idlib.  But with the onset of a mili-
            groups,  is  looking  for  ways                                                                    Associated Press  tary  offensive,  HTS  has  set
            to salvage whatever is pos-                                                                                         up  joint  operation  rooms
            sible of an armed rebellion  Russia to accept its propos-  Idlib are at least 10,000 rad-  "In the mind of the rebellion,  with different National Front
            that at one point in the sev-  als  for  a  solution  on  Idlib  icals  affiliated  with  the  al-  the hope is that from Turk-  factions.
            en-year  conflict  controlled  that avoids an attack.     Qaida-linked group, Hayat  ish  support  they  can  have  Making  a  rare  video  ap-
            more than half of the coun-  On  Monday,  Turkish  Presi-  Tahrir  al-Sham  (Arabic  for  ...  a  republic  of  northern  pearance  in  late  August,
            try.                         dent  Recep  Tayyip  Erdo-   Levant  Liberation  Commit-  Syria,  protected  by  Turkey  HTS  leader  Abu  Moham-
            In its last chapter, just as it  gan  met  for  the  second  tee). The group denies it is  like  Northern  Cyprus,"  said  med  al-Golani  —  wear-
            has  throughout  the  long,  time in 10 days with Russia's  linked  to  al-Qaida.  Thou-  Fabrice  Balanche,  a  Syria  ing  an  olive-green  military
            bloody  war,  the  Syrian  re-  Vladimir  Putin,  this  time  in  sands  of  foreign  fighters,  watcher  at  the  Washing-  uniform  —  vowed  to  fight
            bellion's  fate  lies  in  foreign  Sochi, Russia.        from  China,  Europe  and  ton  Institute  for  Near  East  Assad's  forces  and  said
            hands.  This  time,  the  splin-  "After  proving  its  influence  the  Middle  East,  are  the  Policy.            Turkish  observation  points
            tered  and  diverse  rebels  in  Syria  and  the  Middle  backbone  of  the  radical  These  Turkey-administered  were no protection.
            have only Turkey.            East,  Russia  wants  to  pull  groups.                   areas  are  likely  to  be  the  The HTS spokesman in Idlib
            "The  whole  world  gave  up  Turkey away from the West  The  Turkish  reinforcements  destination  of  the  dis-   said now was not the time
            on  us,  but  Turkey  will  not,"  much  more  than  achieve  are going to 12 observation  placed  and  rebels  of  Idlib  to  talk  about  dissolving
            said Capt. Naji al-Mustafa,  a  military  victory  over  the  points  that  Ankara  set  up  in case of an offensive.  into  Turkish-backed  reb-
            spokesman  for  the  Turkish-  armed  Syrian  opposition,"  around Idlib last year under  An  Idlib  offensive  holds  el  groups.  He  underlined
            backed  umbrella  group  Mustafa  Ellabbad,  an  ex-      a deal with Russia and Iran  multiple  threats  for  Turkey  that an arrangement must
            known  as  the  National  pert  on  Turkish-Arab  rela-   creating  a  "de-escalation  right on its border — a hu-  eventually  be  made  for
            Front for Liberation.        tions,  wrote  in  Kuwait's  al-  zone." The deal also effec-  manitarian crisis, a security  the  foreign  fighters  in  the
            Idlib,  with  its  3  million  resi-  Qabas newspaper.    tively  stopped  an  earlier  nightmare  with  thousands  group.
            dents  and  more  than  The  province,  the  size  of  government advance and  of gunmen loose and a de-            "Right  now,  no  sound  is
            60,000  fighters,  is  Turkey's  Lebanon,  has  been  the  set Turkey up as Idlib's pro-  feat to its plans for the safe  louder  than  that  of  the
            burden to bear.              beating heart of the rebel-  tector.                      zone. If Syrian forces retake  battle,"  Imad  Eddin  Muja-
            Ankara  has  appealed  to  lion for years. In rebel hands  Separately,   Turkey   has  Idlib with no agreement on  hed  said.  "We  have  many
            Russia  and  Iran,  its  uneasy  since  2015,  it  is  the  largest  troops  stationed  in  the  the  fate  of  the  opposition  military  surprises;  enough
            negotiating  partners,  for  a  contiguous  territory  they  enclave  under  its  control  fighters, they could threat-  to  upset  the  balance  and
            diplomatic resolution to the  controlled.  It  has  access  north  and  east  of  Idlib,  en  the  Turkey-controlled  ward off aggressors."
            ticking bomb. At the same  to Turkish borders, securing  where  it  backs  Syrian  op-  enclave,   and    Ankara  In  rallies  around  Idlib  the
            time,  it  has  sent  reinforce-  supply  lines  for  weapons,  position  fighters  and  a  ci-  would  lose  credibility  with  last  two  weeks,  protesters
            ments  of  its  troops  ringing  fighters and aid.        vilian  administration.  It  is  the  fighters  and  leverage  took to the streets to deny
            Idlib,  a  move  designed  to  For the past two years, Idlib  part of its plan to create a  with  Damascus  on  any  fu-  that  the  province  is  a  hot-
            ward off a ground assault,  saw  an  influx  of  an  esti-  safe area along the border  ture deal.                  bed  of  extremists.  Thou-
            at least for now.            mated 20,000 rebel fighters  where  some  of  the  more  "There  is  really  no  way  for  sands  raised  only  the  flag
            A wide offensive is only likely  from  around  the  country  than  3  million  Syrian  refu-  the Syrian military and Da-  of  the  Syrian  revolution,  a
            after a green light from Rus-  after their losses to govern-  gees it hosts may return.  mascus'  allies  to  launch  a  reminder  that  there  was
            sia. But delicate diplomatic  ment troops and surrender  Ankara  initially  sent  in  its  military  offensive  on  Idlib  once  a  popular  uprising
            moves  are  at  work.  Mos-  deals negotiated with Rus-   troops more than two years  that  doesn't  have  deeply  against  Assad,  and  Idlib  is
            cow  is  keen  on  strength-  sia  and  Damascus  follow-  ago to push out the Islam-  negative,  injurious  effects  now its last bastion.
            ening ties with Turkey, at a  ing   devastating   sieges.  ic  State  group  and  Syrian  on  Turkey.  There  is  no  real  Some raised banners read-
            time  when  Ankara's  rela-  Civilians  who  refused  to  Kurdish fighters. For Ankara,  way  they  can  cushion  this  ing:  "The  rebels  are  our
            tions are at their lowest with  go  back  under  govern-  the  increasingly  assertive,  for Turkey," said Sam Heller,  hope and the Turks are our
            the  United  States.  Turkey,  ment rule were also bussed  U.S.-backed  Syrian  Kurds  a  Syria  expert  in  the  Brus-  brothers."
            by  calling  on  the  United  there,  nearly  doubling  the  were  an  existential  threat  sels-based   International  Syrian  forces  and  Iranian-
            States and Europe for sup-   province's population.       that  encourages  the  aspi-  Crisis Group.               backed militias are likely to
            port,  seems  to  be  playing  Among    the   estimated  rations of its own Kurdish in-  Turkey's strategy in the op-  avoid a clash with the Turk-
            on that interest to pressure  60,000 opposition fighters in  surgents.                 position  areas  has  been  ish troops. q
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