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U.S. NEWS Friday 26 May 2017

Forecasters predict above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

By JENNIFER KAY “much improved” fore-
Associated Press cast guidance this year,
MIAMI (AP) — Warm said Mary Erickson, deputy
ocean waters could fuel director of the National
an above-normal Atlan- Weather Service.
tic hurricane season, while Officials urged coastal
storm-suppressing El Nino residents to make evacua-
conditions are expected tion plans and stock up on
to be scarce, U.S. gov- emergency supplies long
ernment forecasters said before any tropical weath-
Thursday. er advisory is posted.
The National Oceanic and The National Hurricane
Atmospheric Administra- Center in Miami is adding
tion forecast calls for 11 advisories highlighting spe-
to 17 named storms, with cific storm hazards: Storm
five to nine hurricanes. Two surge watches and warn-
to four hurricanes are ex- ings will be issued when U.S.
pected to be “major” with communities are at risk for
sustained winds of at least life-threatening flooding.
111 mph. The “uncertainty cone”
Forecasters expect warm- showing a storm’s project-
er-than-average waters ed path will be updated to
across the tropical Atlan- A car is partially submerged as it travels beneath a railroad underpass in Fort Wayne, Ind., on show how far damaging
tic Ocean and Caribbean Thursday, May 25, 2017, following heavy rains that sparked flash flooding in the northeastern In- winds can reach. An ex-
Sea, weaker-than-average diana city. Warm ocean waters could fuel an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, while perimental “time of arrival”
wind shear and a weak storm-suppressing El Nino conditions are expected to be scarce, U.S. government forecasters graphic will show people
or nonexistent El Nino, said Thursday. when tropical storm-force
said Ben Friedman, acting (Samuel Hoffman/The Journal-Gazette via AP) winds are expected to
NOAA administrator. start hitting their areas.
El Nino is the natural warm- considerable uncertainty, (119 kph). “Its ‘lightning mapper’ al- “Key data will be available
ing of parts of the Pacif- “there’s a potential for a A new weather satellite will lows us to see lightning in earlier than ever to make
ic Ocean that changes lot of Atlantic storm activity help forecasters see de- the clouds like we’ve never informed decisions,” said
weather worldwide and this year,” Friedman said. veloping storms in greater seen before,” he said. Robert Fenton, acting ad-
tends to reduce hurricane The long-term season aver- detail, especially when it High-resolution hurricane ministrator of the Federal
activity in the Atlantic. ages are 12 named storms, moves later this year into model upgrades also Emergency Management
Warm waters feed a hur- with six hurricanes and a permanent position over are expected to provide Agency.q
ricane’s strength, while three major ones. Tropi- the East Coast with a view
strong wind shear can cal storms have sustained over the continental U.S.
starve it and pull a storm winds of at least 39 mph (63 and tropical waters where
apart. kph), and hurricanes have hurricanes form, Freidman
While climate models show winds of at least 74 mph said.