Page 28 - aruba-today-20180825

A28 SCIENCE
Saturday 25 auguSt 2018
Science Says: Hawaii hurricanes rare, but getting less so

By SETH BORENSTEIN CLIMATE CHANGE
AP Science Writer While climate scientists are
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hur- reluctant to link individual
ricanes seldom get close weather events or even
to Hawaii and it's even rar- seasons to global warming,
er for one of the islands to they can make the con-
take a direct hit. nections with elaborate
Hurricane Lane is already detailed studies. National
drenching and pummeling Oceanic Atmospheric Ad-
the island chain, even with- ministration climate scien-
out reaching land. tist Hiro Murakami, Vecchi
The last time a major hur- and others studied the 2014
ricane hit Hawaii was in hurricane season around
1992 when Category 4 Iniki Hawaii and found it was
caused billions in damage. "made substantially more
On average, the central likely" by climate change
Pacific hurricane region, caused by emissions from
which includes Hawaii, sees burning coal, oil and gas,
about four or five storms with a natural boost from El
moving through, but that Nino.
may be changing with In a study last year, they
global warming. also connected global
A look at the hurricane sea- This image provided by NASA on Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2018 shows Hurricane Lane as seen from warming to 2015's record
son in Hawaii: the International Space Station. number of major storms in
WIND IS KEY Associated Press the region, including three
Usually wind is what keeps Category 4 hurricanes in
storms from threatening mph (27 to 47 kph). Now, Hurricanes are fueled by THE SEASON the central and eastern
Hawaii. Most eastern Pa- they are less than half as warm water. The water So far this year, the en- Pacific at the same time.
cific hurricanes form in the strong, allowing storms to temperature in the region is tire eastern Pacific region, These studies are limited
warm waters off Mexico stay alive, explained Colo- about 2 to 3.5 degrees (1 to which includes the cen- because of weak records
and head west. But before rado State University hur- 2 degrees Celsius) warmer tral region, is much more of storms in the area before
they get too far, wind cur- ricane scientist Phil Klotz- than normal, according to active with more storms, 1970, Vecchi said.
rents usually cause them bach. Vecchi. That was also the stronger ones and longer WHAT'S AHEAD
to circle back toward the That also happened in case in 2014-2015. "We've lasting ones than normal, Many climate studies re-
coast. The storms that stay 2014 and 2015, which were come to learn that an un- Klotzbach calculated . On cently predict that as the
a bit further south are the busier than normal years usually warm ocean in the average, the region gets world warms, the globe
rare ones that make it to for storms getting close to subtropical Pacific will tend 15 named storms for the overall and the Atlan-
the central Pacific, said Hawaii. There were four in to increase the number of total season. Lane, which tic region will have fewer
Princeton University climate 2015 and three in 2014, in- hurricanes around Hawaii," formed Aug. 15 far off named storms but more
scientist Gabe Vecchi. cluding Iselle, which hit the Vecchi said. Mexico, is already the 12th intense ones. However, the
This year, those winds aren't Big Island but was a weak- The Pacific has more storms named storm and the sec- central Pacific bucks that
quite steering storms back ened tropical storm. during a strong El Nino, a ond to get close to Hawaii. prediction.
east. Add to that weaker But the central Pacific is a weather event that warms In contrast, the Atlantic re- Several studies forecast
than normal winds aloft — big area and the islands the water. Meteorologists gion is running around its that the central Pacific will
about where airplanes fly occupy a small area, so expect an El Nino to form average for this point in the become busier with more
— that usually shred storms. most storms aren't likely to in the next couple months, season, with stormy condi- storms, stronger storms and
Winds at that level would come too close. but right now El Nino con- tions slowing down recent- faster developing ones,
normally be 23 mph to 29 WARM WATER ditions are still more neutral ly. Storms get named when Vecchi said. A Murakami
than hot. Vecchi and oth- winds reach 39 mph (63 study used computer simu-
ers attribute the warming to kph). lations to predict a notice-
a natural cousin of El Nino, August is the biggest month able increase in storms
with help from climate far for central Pacific hurri- around the Hawaiian Is-
change. When it comes canes, compared to Sep- lands.
to hurricane activity in tember for the Atlantic. The It's once again because of
the central Pacific, warm- central Pacific hurricane winds and water. The water
ing from that north-south season runs from June in the region is predicted to
weather pattern is much through November, just warm faster than elsewhere
more connected to caus- like the Atlantic. The east- around the globe because
ing more storms than east- ern Pacific runs from May of a weakening of trade
west El Nino, Vecchi said. through October. winds, Vecchi said.q

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