Page 15 - Bullion World Issue 1 May 2021
P. 15

4000                             Gold ETF Holdings
                 3500                                                          Bullion World | Issue 01 | May 2021
                               North America   Europe    Asia   Other
                 3000
                                             The surge was driven by the COVID-19   They were also some 39% higher than
                 2500                        outbreak, which saw the global    the previous yearly record in 2009. By
           “ Tonnes  Total net inflows       economy plunge into the worst downturn   the end of 2020, global ETF holdings
                 2000
           for the year were
                                             since the Great Depression. This
                                                                               stood at 3,740 tonnes, approximately
                 1500
           estimated at under                prompted governments to announce   US$213 billion in assets under
                 1000
                                                                               management; and while down from the
                                             unprecedented stimulus measures,
           900 tonnes and                    pushing interest rates into more negative   record level seen in November, they were
                  500
           valued at US$51                   territories, all of which boosted gold’s   still over 30% above the end-2019 level.
                    0
           billion, which                    safe-haven appeal. Furthermore, the   Looking at this year, while ETF buying
                                             logistical issues, caused by the virus
                                                                               resumed at a small scale in January, net
           represented the                   outbreak, triggered the disconnect   outflows witnessed over the next few
           highest ever annual               between the COMEX gold futures market   weeks pushed global holdings to a near
                                  Source: Various ETF sources; Metals Research, Refinitiv, an LSEG business
           gain recorded since               and the OTC market in London. This   ten-month low of around 3,440 tonnes
                                             resulted in higher premiums on futures
                                                                               by mid-March, which represented net
           the inception of gold             contracts compared to the OTC price   outflows of nearly 160 tonnes year-

           ETFs in 2003.  ”                  and increased cost of ownership, thereby   to-date. While it may still be too early
                                             encouraging some investors to switch to   to make conclusions, this is clearly
                                                                               not the same start to the year that we
                                             OTC holdings and ETF buying.
                                    Monthly Change in Gold ETF Holdings
               250                                                                                     2200

               200                                                                                     2000

               150
                                                                                                       1800

              Tonnes  100                                                                              1600  US$/oz

                50
                                                                                                       1400
                 0

               -50                                                                                     1200

              -100                                                                                     1000





                         North America       Europe       Asia       Other       Gold Price, RHS
                                      Source: Various ETFs; Metals Research, Refinitiv, an LSEG business



                                             Having said that, the growing optimism   experienced in 2020, and it remains
                                             around the approval of COVID-19   dubious whether gold ETFs this year
                                             vaccines and prospects for a long-  would be able to get anywhere close to
                                             awaited return to normal saw some   the spectacular performance witnessed
                                             investors reduce their gold exposure   last year.
                                             towards the end of the year. After 12
                                             months of uninterrupted gains, gold   Saida  Litosh has been  covering  the metals
                                             ETFs experienced selling in the final two   markets since she joined the GFMS precious
                                             months of 2020, equivalent to just under   metals research team in 2011,  focusing on
                                             170 tonnes of gold. Net outflows were   investment and fabrication demand in Europe
                                                                                and playing a key role in covering precious
                                             driven primarily by selling in Europe and   metals research in Russia. In 2016,  Saida
                                             North America, where investors reduced   joined Thomson Reuters Oil Research team,
                                             their holdings by 90 tonnes and 86   where her primary focus was analysis of
                                             tonnes, respectively; while holdings in   crude, fuel oil and key refined product flows
                                             other regions increased slightly, by just   for Europe, Russia and Africa. She rejoined
                                                                                Refinitiv Metals team in late 2017 to head up
                                             under seven tonnes.                precious metals demand research for Europe,
                                                                                in addition  to leading  gold  analysis and
                                                                                economic  forecasts.  Saida  holds a Master’s
                                                                                degree in Economics from the London School
                                                                                of Economics.
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