Page 31 - The 'X' Chronicles Newspaper - August/September 2017

How People Believe in the Paranormal 31

How Come Some People

Believe in the

Paranormal?

Those who favor Bigfoot, UFOs

and ghosts share a thinking style

By Sander van der Linden

I loved magic shows when I was a kid. I
remember being absolutely fascinated by
mysterious events and the possibility that some
of us might possess supernatural powers such as
the ability to read minds, get a glimpse of the
future, or, perhaps, suddenly port into another
dimension. The human mind is a curious one.
Although it is well-known that children have a
lively imagination, what about adults? You
might be surprised to learn that a recent national
poll found that over 71% of Americans believe
in “miracles”, 42% of Americans believe that description was. Before starting the experiment, reflective thinkers were more likely to see the
“ghosts” exist, 41% think that “extrasensory participants were also asked to complete a event as a statistical fluke.
perception” (e.g., telepathy) is possible and Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) as well as a Interestingly, one question the
29% believe in astrology. “Paranormal Belief” questionnaire. The researchers did not answer is why intuitive
Other recent polls have indicated that cognitive reflection test is a very short three- minds are more likely to engage in such
public belief in things like conspiracy theories item test that essentially measures whether you “magical thinking?” Cognitive psychologists
or other pseudo-scientific phenomena are are more of an intuitive or reflective thinker. have offered one possible explanation; the
equally prevalent. For example, 21% of Consider the following example; if a baseball “conjunction fallacy.” The conjunction fallacy
Americans think the government is hiding and a bat cost $1.10 and the bat costs $1 more was coined by psychologists Daniel Kahneman
aliens, 28% of Americans believe that a than the ball, how much does the ball cost? The and Amos Tversky and basically describes a
mysterious, secret elite power is plotting a New quick and intuitive answer that comes to mind reasoning error where people mistakenly
World Order (NWO) and 14% of Americans for most people is simply $0.10. Yet, this is also assume that specific conditions are more likely
believe in Bigfoot. Recent psychological the wrong answer. More reflective thinkers tend than general ones. For example, consider the
research has found a surprising relationship to suppress this automatic and intuitive answer following two statements; (A) Linda can predict
between these types of personal convictions; and are more suspicious of the first thing that the future and (B) Linda can predict the future
espousal of conspiracy theories, pseudo-science comes to mind. (If you’re curious, the correct and also read your mind. Logically, the
and belief in the paranormal turn out to be answer is: $0.05). probability of two events occurring together (in
highly correlated with one another. What could The researchers found that although “conjunction”) is always less than or equal to
explain these findings? both intuitive and reflective thinkers somewhat the probability of either event occurring alone.
While perhaps belief in say, lizard recognized the statements as being descriptive In other words, although option B may sound
people and astrology seem relatively unrelated of their personality, reflective thinkers were completely plausible due to the misleading
on the surface, so-called “magical thinking” much less likely to recognize the Barnum “representativeness” of the two events
may very well have a common underlying statements as correct. This relationship (precognition and mindreading), the laws of
“cognitive style” — that is, the way in which we persisted after controlling for any prior probability tell us that the likelihood that Linda
think about and make sense of the world. In differences in paranormal beliefs. The authors can do two separate magical things is always
fact, a new study explored this very question speculated that in contrast to reflective minds, less likely (or equal) to the probability that she
and suggests that the answer may indeed lie in intuitive thinkers might be more likely to accept can do either one alone.
the way we think about things, or, more their “uncanny” experience as proof for the Recent research has shown that people
precisely, the way in which we fail to think existence of supernatural phenomena. who espouse paranormal and conspiratorial
about things. To test this assertion more directly, the beliefs are much more susceptible to the
Two researchers at the University of researchers conducted another experiment. In conjunction-fallacy. For example, consider the
Toulouse in France set out to investigate to what the second experiment, a different group of fact that people often endorse multiple (or
extent “cognitive thinking styles” are predictive students were studied, but this time they were contradictory) conspiracy theories about the
of believing in the paranormal after told that the purpose of the study was to same event, where belief in one conspiracy
experiencing an “uncanny” event. The research examine telepathy (i.e., mind-reading). The serves as evidence for belief in another. Yet, the
team designed a number of clever experiments research team hired a fake participant to act as likelihood that two (or many) different
to test their hypothesis. In the first study, the the “mind-reader.” During the experiment, conspiratorial explanations about world events
researchers invited students on campus to participants were told to randomly pick a card are all true at the same time is increasingly
participate in an experiment that investigated out of a set of five, and then the other participant unlikely. Similarly, belief in one paranormal
astrological signs as a predictor of one’s (the confederate) would “read” their mind by phenomenon might quickly lead to the belief
personality. After providing their date of birth, guessing what card they had picked (the that many “magical” things are happening (it
participants received a personality description experiment was rigged of course). This time, the can’t merely be coincidence).
that matched their astral theme. In reality, each experimenters asked participants directly
person was given the same 10 “Barnum” whether they thought the event was simply a (Continued on Page 32)
statements. These are statements that could ring result of luck, probability or a non-scientific
true for nearly anyone (e.g., “you have a need explanation such as extrasensory perception
for people to like you” or “at times you have (ESP). Results showed that irrespective of prior “We must let go of the life we have
serious doubts about whether you have made convictions, non-reflective thinkers were indeed planned, so as to accept the one that is
the right decision”). Participants were then more likely to endorse ESP as an explanation waiting for us.”
asked to evaluate how accurate they thought this for their “uncanny” experience whereas - Joseph Campbell