Page 32 - Travel Markets Insider October 2021 Final

INSIDER

OAG analyzes Caribbean air travel recovery

A recent OAG blog published on December and 48% down for January. In contrast, some of the smaller
September 14 analyzed upcoming air traffic Before the pandemic over half of all destinations both in terms of population
for Caribbean destinations this winter from air arrivals in the Caribbean were from and arrivals by air such as Aruba,
Europe and North America, and found wide airports in the USA. The scale of subdued Barbados, St Maarten and the U.S. Virgin
differences between the various countries bookings shows just how much this and Islands appear to be in a better position in
in terms of forward air travel bookings other markets continue to be affected by terms of bookings for the end of the year.
for November, December and January, the international travel consequences of the The U.S. Virgin Islands is getting close to
compared to two years ago. pandemic, despite the U.S. domestic market 2019 levels in November and December
The largest destination in the being well on the way to recovery. In August and forward bookings for January are now
Caribbean is the Dominican Republic. 2021 U.S. domestic capacity was just 12% the same as they were in August 2019 for
In 2019 the D.R. reported 6.5 million below where it was in August 2019. January 2020.
arriving air passengers, of which 55% were Puerto Rico is the second largest OAG says that it isn’t easy to account
from the U.S. Travel and tourism accounted Caribbean destination for air travel. As an for these differences.
for 16% of the GDP, according to World unincorporated U.S. territory it is a much There is an element of vaccinated
Travel and Tourism Council. more U.S.-orientated market with 80% of travelers gravitating to islands with strict
Tourism appears to be a less important arrivals by air coming from the United States. rules on quarantine for unvaccinated
part of the economy for the Dominican Forward bookings are somewhat worse than travelers while the unvaccinated may head
Republic than for some of their smaller in the Dominican Republic, at -43%, -47% for islands which have a more relaxed
neighbors which are much more dependent and -39% for November, December and approach.
on incoming visitors to drive their January respectively. But travel and tourism Maybe smaller island destinations are
economy. At the moment forward bookings accounts for a smaller proportion of the proving more attractive to holidaymakers
for November and December to the economy, at just 5% pre-pandemic. than larger islands. The importance of
Dominican Republic are about a third down Forward bookings to Jamaica, the tourism to the economy doesn’t necessarily
on the same time two years ago, while fourth largest destination in the Caribbean point to better recovery; Barbados where
January bookings are lagging further still. for air travel, are faring much worse travel and tourism accounted for less than
However, this compares favorably with bookings for the end of the year 10% of GDP in 2019, has better forward
with the forward bookings across all still only 10% of where they were at this bookings than Aruba where tourism
Caribbean destinations which are 50% point two years ago. Tourism is a much accounted for 69% of the economy.
down compared to where they were two more important element of the economy, Nor can it be explained by the
years ago for November, 48% down for accounting for 28% of GDP in 2019. importance of the U.S., a market which
has seen high level of recovery in domestic
air travel; air travel to and from Bermuda
has traditionally been heavily skewed to
the U.S. with over 70% of passengers
traveling to or from the U.S., and yet
forward bookings are only around 10%
of what they were two years ago. Antigua
has had a strong element of UK travel but
their forward bookings appear even more
affected at only around 5% of where they
should have been.
There may be an element of non-
leisure travel contributing to forward
bookings such as students returning from
other countries where they are studying,
or diaspora communities generating VFR
(Visiting Friends and Relatives) traffic.
Add the level of endemic virus to
the mix, the proportion of the population
in each island that has been vaccinated,
the travel restrictions in place and the
extent to which each destination marketing
organization has been able to adapt and
promote the country and it’s no wonder
there is so much variation in forward
bookings across the Caribbean.
Source: OAG Analyzer

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