Page 158 - RISK Management IC 86
P. 158
Risk Management
In these circumstances, the tendency is usually to
disregard the situation as one of pure uncertainty. However
often subjective data is available in such a way that some
estimate of the probability can be made.
The subjective data often consists of personal judgements,
and hence its value varies according to the training,
experience and common sense of the person involved.
Also, often in risk management decision making situations,
there is a lack of statistical data, and the use of subjective
probability estimates, or the subjective modification of
scant statistical data, is necessary.
However, before subjective judgements are made, all
available facts should be collected and as many expert
opinions should be sought. Subjective probability
estimates are a mixture of statistical observation and
personal judgement. Though skeptics often find these
estimates suspicious, they usually provide practical and
useful guidelines.
d) Risk Avoidance - It is the most drastic method of dealing
with risks. Whereas all other methods are aimed at
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