Page 158 - RISK Management IC 86
P. 158

Risk Management

          In these circumstances, the tendency is usually to
          disregard the situation as one of pure uncertainty. However
          often subjective data is available in such a way that some
          estimate of the probability can be made.

          The subjective data often consists of personal judgements,
          and hence its value varies according to the training,
          experience and common sense of the person involved.

          Also, often in risk management decision making situations,
          there is a lack of statistical data, and the use of subjective
          probability estimates, or the subjective modification of
          scant statistical data, is necessary.

          However, before subjective judgements are made, all
          available facts should be collected and as many expert
          opinions should be sought. Subjective probability
          estimates are a mixture of statistical observation and
          personal judgement. Though skeptics often find these
          estimates suspicious, they usually provide practical and
          useful guidelines.

d) Risk Avoidance - It is the most drastic method of dealing
          with risks. Whereas all other methods are aimed at

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