Page 21 - Food Outlook

Table 3. Top 10 wheat importers*
2014/15-2016/17 2017/18 average f'cast
million tonnes
Egypt 11.6 12.0
1 million tonnes less than in 2016/17. Large domestic supplies, especially following this year’s record harvest, are the reason for the lower projected wheat purchases by China from abroad. Similarly, wheat imports by India are seen to decline by 2 million tonnes in 2017/18, to
4 million tonnes, in view of this year’s bumper harvest. Wheat purchases by Thailand are also forecast to decrease, by some 800 000 tonnes to 3 million tonnes, with the main reason being the Government’s decision to restrict imports of feed wheat, effective since the beginning of this year. By contrast, several countries
in Asia are likely to import more wheat in 2017/18, in particular the Syrian Arab Republic, where the ongoing conflict has greatly increased the country’s reliance on imports, despite some increase in this year’s domestic production level.
In Africa, aggregate wheat imports in 2017/18 are projected at around 49 million tonnes, slightly lower than the 2017/18 record level. Imports by Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, are forecast at 12 million tonnes, some 400 000 tones above the 2016/17 estimated level. The small drop in this year’s production, increasing demand and high domestic prices are among the main factors behind the anticipated high level of imports by Egypt. As of October, foreign wheat deliveries with a moisture level of up to 13.5 percent will be allowed for a nine-month period; previously, the permissible moisture level was set at 13 percent. However, as in 2016/17, uncertainties remain as to the eventual size of Egypt’s import purchases, due
to the changing policies. Higher wheat imports are also forecast for South Africa, primarily because of the decline
0.0 in domestic production but also because of strong demand
which induced the Government to lower the import tariff by 60 percent as of early October. The new tariff is the lowest since February 2015. By contrast, wheat imports by Morocco are set to decrease by 1 million tonnes, or 18 percent, to 4.5 million tonnes, as a result of a recovery in domestic production this year.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, imports in
2017/18 are forecast to change little in most countries. Smaller purchases are anticipated for Bolivia and Brazil. Higher domestic wheat production is seen to result in a nearly 44 percent drop in wheat imports by Bolivia, to
360 000 tonnes. In Brazil, large domestic supplies, due
to high carryover stocks from the previous season, could result in imports declining by 260 000 tonnes to stand at 7.5 million tonnes. By contrast, wheat imports by Mexico are anticipated to exceed the previous season’s level
by 300 000 tonnes to reach 5.3 million tonnes. Lower production and strong demand are the main factors behind this anticipated increase.
Indonesia Algeria
Brazil
Japan Bangladesh
Viet Nam Philippines Turkey European Union
9.0 9.7 8.2 8.2 6.5 7.5 5.8 6.4 4.6 6.0 3.6 5.7 5.1 5.5 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.3
Change
%
0.4 0.7 0.0 1.0 0.5 1.4 2.1 0.4 0.4
-0.4
* Imports are based on a common July/June marketing season
Table 4. Top 10 wheat exporters*
2014/15-2016/17 2017/18 Change
average
f'cast
Russian Federation European Union United States Canada
million tonnes %
25.0 32.2 7.2 31.3 28.4 -2.9 24.6 26.3 1.7 22.4 21.0 -1.4 18.2 18.2 0.0 15.6 16.5 0.9
Australia
Ukraine
Argentina 8.2 12.0 3.8 Kazakhstan 6.8 7.3 0.5 Turkey 4.2 4.0 -0.2 Mexico 1.2 1.2
* Exports are based on a common July/June marketing season
Figure 4. Wheat exports from the Russian Federation
million tonnes
40 30 20 10
0 Av. 2012/13- 2016/17
Russian Federation global share of wheat exports
(right axis)
2015/16
2016/17
percent
40 30 20 10
2017/18 0
f’cast
estim. Russian Federation (left axis)
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
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WHEAT