Page 20 - Food Outlook

Figure 3 . Wheat production in major CIS producers
In the Southern Hemisphere, the production outlook for Australia indicates a decline in the 2017 output, following the previous year’s exceptionally high level. Preliminary forecasts put the 2017 output at 21.6 million tonnes,
38 percent down on a yearly basis. Dryness during the winter months is the main factor behind this year’s drop, with
yields expected at below-average levels, although a smaller harvested area is also expected to contribute to the decline.
In South America, the aggregate 2017 wheat production is forecast to fall by 6 percent. Most of this decline pertains to an expected 18 percent reduction in Brazil’s wheat output, forecast at 5.5 million tonnes. Containing a larger decline at the regional level, Argentina’s output is forecast at a well above average level of 19 million tonnes, resting on a price-driven expansion in sowings that more than offset a small decrease in yields.
Looking ahead, planting of the 2018 wheat crop is underway across northern hemisphere countries. In the United States, drier weather in some key growing states had slowed the pace of sowings compared with the previous year. Plantings are expected to continue until
the end of November. In the EU, preliminary indications suggest that wheat sowings could rise in 2018, as earlier expectations of an area expansion for alternative oilseed crops dissipated due to unfavourable weather during
the planting period, which comes before winter wheat sowings. In the Russian Federation and Ukraine, recent beneficial rains helped to replenish soil moisture and supported a quickening of winter wheat plantings, with sowing progress up compared to the previous year.
TRADE
Wheat trade to remain below the 2016/17 record level
FAO’s forecast for world trade (including wheat flour in wheat equivalent) in 2017/18 (July/June) has been raised by 500 000 tonnes since October to 175.2 million tonnes, which is still down 2 million tonnes, or 1.2 percent, from the all-time high of 177.4 million tonnes in 2016/17. The latest upward revision reflects small adjustments to the projected imports by Nigeria and Mexico.
The forecast small contraction in world trade in 2017/18 is largely driven by expected lower imports by Asia, more than offsetting higher imports anticipated in Europe and North America.
In Asia, total wheat imports in 2017/18 are forecast at 88.7 million tonnes, down 2.3 million tonnes, or
2.5 percent, from 2016/17 with the bulk of the decrease expected in China and India. Wheat imports by China are currently forecast to reach 3.2 million tonnes, some
million tonnes 100
80 60 40 20
0
2013 2014 2015
Russian Fed. Ukraine
2016 2017 estim. f’cast
Kazakhstan
put the wheat production at around 14 million tonnes, down 7.5 percent from the previous year.
In Asia, with most of the crop harvested, a small increase in the regional output is forecast in 2017.
Most of the increase concerns India, where a rise in the Government’s procurement price and beneficial weather instigated a significant expansion in plantings. As a
result, the country’s 2017 wheat output is estimated at 98.4 million tonnes, 6.6 percent higher than the previous year. In Pakistan, a moderate production increase is foreseen, with output reaching 26 million tonnes this year, reflecting generally good weather and an expanded use of fertilizer that helped to boost yields and more than compensate for a contraction in sowings. In China, the world’s largest wheat grower, production is forecast to increase by 1 percent to 130 million tonnes, putting it at a similar level to that of 2015.
In the Near East, wheat production in Turkey is
forecast to rise by 6 percent to 21.8 million tonnes on account of well distributed rains, while production in
the Islamic Republic of Iran is anticipated to remain almost unchanged relative to last year’s output. On-going conflicts continue to constrain agricultural production
in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic.
As a result, wheat output levels in all three countries are expected to remain below average, although favourable weather in Syria helped support a moderate yearly increase.
In North Africa, above-average and well distributed
rains in Morocco resulted in a sharp recovery in wheat production in 2017, estimated at 7.1 million tonnes, more than double the 2016 output, which was adversely affected by dry weather. Similarly, Algeria registered a yearly production gain, mostly reflecting a larger harvested area.
14
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
Market assessments