Page 24 - Food Outlook

US wheat exports compared with the rest of the world
BOX 2: United States’ share in global wheat trade declining but demand for the US hard red wheat remains strong
A decline in the United States’ wheat planted area and increased competition from other exporters contributed to a sharp decline in the United States’ share of global wheat trade over the past two decades. Between 1997/98 and 2016/17, the United States’ share of world wheat exports fluctuated from a high of
31 percent in 2003/04, to a low of 13 percent in 2015/16. Total wheat exports from the United States are forecast at around
26 million tonnes in 2017/18, which would represent 15 percent of the world total.
Hard red wheat shipments averaged 64 percent of total wheat exported from the United States over the past two decades, with a low share of just over 50 percent in 2005/06 and a high of 74 percent in 2010/11. The United States’ hard red wheat main markets are in Asia and Latin American, with Mexico the largest importer of HRW and the Philippines the major importer of HRS.
million tonnes
%
•
•
•
The United States’ HRW wheat exports are set to
reach almost 11 million tonnes in 2017/18 (July/June), representing 42.3 percent of total wheat exports from the United States. This compares to a low of 28 percent in 2005/06 and a peak of almost 48 percent in 2010/11.
The United States’ HRS wheat shipments, forecast to reach
7 million tonnes in 2017/18 (July/June), represent 27 percent of total wheat exports from the United States, compared
to a low of 20.4 percent in 2000/01 and a high of almost
33 percent in 2015/16.
The United States’ Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat exports are projected at 2.5 million tonnes in 2017/18 (July/June), accounting for some 9 percent of total wheat exports from the United States. This compared to a low of 7.6 percent in 2005/06 and a peak of 24 percent in 2013/14.
million tonnes %
40 80 35 75 30 70 25 65 20 60 15 55 10 50
5 45 0 40
97/98
180 35 160 30
140
120 25
100 80 60 40 20
20 15 10 5
00 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 17/18
USA Rest of the world f’cast USA share
Hard red wheat (Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring) traditionally represents the highest share in total wheat exports from the United States. Hard red wheat is characterized by higher protein content than the soft varieties.
• Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat, predominantly a bread wheat, has witnessed a rising importance as an all-purpose flour and in the noodle industry. It accounts, on average, for around
38 percent of total wheat exports from the United States.
• Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, characterized by its high protein content of over 13.5 percent, is used primarily for baking. It accounts for around 25 percent of the United States’ total wheat exports.
Contact:
Lavinia.Lucarelli@fao.org
01/02 05/06
09/10 13/14
17/18 f’cast
Hard Red Winter wheat
US other wheat
export
Hard Red Spring
wheat
US Hard red wheat export share (right axis)
Source: USDA
US wheat exports by type of wheat
18
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
Market assessments