Page 31 - Food Outlook

record harvest in Argentina is forecast to boost its maize sales to 27 million tonnes, up sharply from the previous season’s high of 22.6 million tonnes. Maize shipments from Ukraine are seen at around 20 million tonnes,
down slightly from the previous season’s record volume, while South Africa, which is showing a recovery in maize production, is expected to return to international markets with at least 2.5 million tonnes of exports this season. In the barley market, the anticipated contraction in world trade is seen to weigh on shipments from Argentina, Canada and Ukraine, while the anticipated drop in sorghum trade could result in decreased sales by Australia and the United States, and more than offset increases in exports from Argentina and Sudan.
UTILIZATION
Utilization of coarse grains to increase marginally in 2017/18
Global utilization of coarse grains in 2017/18 is forecast to reach nearly 1 352 million tonnes, representing an expansion of around 1 percent from 2016/17. Total feed utilization of coarse grains in 2017/18 is pegged at
753 million tonnes, only 0.3 percent up from 2016/17. This compares with an over 2 percent expansion in 2016/17. This apparent slowdown in growth is largely a reflection of anticipated reduced feed use in a handful of countries, namely Serbia which had a sharp fall in its maize harvest, several CIS countries, particularly Kazakhstan
and Ukraine, which also have had lower outputs, and the Russian Federation, where more abundant wheat supplies following this year’s record harvest are likely to partially substitute maize in animal feed rations. Smaller feed use
of coarse grains is also seen in the United States, mainly driven by a cut in sorghum feed more than offsetting an increase in feed use of maize. However, feed usage of coarse grains is set to rise in the Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, supported by a growing demand from their livestock sectors. In China, the expansion is likely to be modest. Total use of coarse grains for feed in China in
Figure 6. Global coarse grain production and feed use
million tonnes
810 780 750 720 690 660 630
600 2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
estim.
percent
61 58 55 52 49 46 43
2017/18 40
f’cast.
World feed use
(left axis)
Share of world production in feed use (right axis)
Table 9. Maize use for ethanol (excluding non-fuel) in the United States
2017/18 is projected to approach 149 million tonnes, only 0.3 percent above the 2016/17 level. However, given its large supplies, feed use of maize is set to rise by 1.4 percent, or 2 million tonnes, to reach 140 million tonnes, more than offsetting a decline in feed barley intakes of 22 percent, or
1 million tonnes. Brazil and Mexico are among the other countries where feed use of coarse grains is set to increase. In Brazil, record maize production and, consequently,
large domestic supplies are seen to drive up feed use
by 4 percent, to nearly 44 million tonnes. In Mexico,
ample domestic maize supplies, following above-average production coupled with large carryovers from the previous season, will contribute to its feed use rising by 5.8 percent to around 19 million tonnes.
World food consumption of coarse grains is forecast
to reach almost 208 million tonnes in 2017/18, 1.5 percent more than in 2016/17. Africa and Asia account for most of the food consumption of coarse grains. Total food use of coarse grains in Africa is projected at nearly 91 million tonnes, 2.0 percent higher than in 2016/17, with most of the anticipated increase in Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan and Tanzania. In Asia, total food use of coarse grains is projected to rise to
Maize production Ethanol use
Yearly change (%) As % of production
2009/10
332 550 116 616 25 35
2010/11
316 166 127 538
9.4 40.3
2011/12
313 956 127 005 -0.4 40.5
2012/13
273 188 117 886 -7.2 43.2
2013/14
351 270 130 155 10.4 37.1
2014/15
361 101 132 085 1.5 36.6
2015/16
345 504 132 695 0.5 38.4
2016/17 estim.
384 774 138 131 4.1 35.9
2017/18 (f'cast)
362 726 139 070 0.7 38.3
Source: WASDE-USDA. * 12 October 2017
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
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COARSE GRAINS