Page 29 - Food Outlook

Figure 4. Global trade of coarse grains by type
Figure 5. Coarse grain exports: major exporters
million tonnes
200 180 160 140 120 100
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17 estim.
Sorghum
2017/18 f’cast
Maize
Other coarse grains
Barley
Canada
Australia
Russian Federation
EU Brazil Ukraine
Argentina USA
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2016/17 million tonnes (estimate)
2017/18
(forecast)
Mexico accounting for all of the rise. This year’s decline in production amid strong domestic feed demand is likely to push maize imports by Mexico to a new high of 15.5 million tonnes.
Total maize imports in Europe are also forecast
to increase, by 2 million tonnes, or 14.6 percent, to
16.5 million tonnes. This increase would be almost entirely due to higher purchases by the EU. Total maize imports
by the EU are projected to increase to an all-time high of 15.6 million tonnes, 15 percent more than in 2016/17 because of strong feed demand and competitive prices.
By contrast, maize imports in Africa in 2017/18 are projected to decline by 1.9 million tonnes, or 8.3 percent, to just under 21 million tonnes. This decrease is primarily driven by a sharp cut in purchases by several countries in Southern Africa, mainly because of production recoveries. In South Africa, traditionally a leading regional exporter, no imports will be needed following a strong rebound
in domestic production. Two years of consecutive
poor harvests forced the country to import nearly
2 million tonnes of maize annually. Imports by Zimbabwe are also seen to drop, from over 900 000 tonnes in 2016/17 to almost nil, reflecting this year’s bumper
crop and a government ban on maize imports that was announced in June.
World trade in barley, the second largest traded coarse grain after maize, is set to drop by 2 million tonnes, or
7 percent, from the previous season, to 27 million tonnes. However, with nearly steady imports in all major markets, the decline is mainly driven by the anticipated fall in barley purchases by China, more than offsetting an increase in imports by Saudi Arabia. In China, imports of barley are projected to decline by 2.7 million tonnes in 2017/18,
reaching a more normal level of 4.6 million tonnes. China has imported exceptionally large volumes of barley, as
well as sorghum, since 2014/15, in response to elevated domestic prices of feed grains and a slowdown in maize purchases. By contrast, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest barley importer, is anticipated to increase its purchases this season by 500 000 tonnes to 11 million tonnes, in order to meet the growth in domestic feed demand. Similarly, global trade in sorghum is seen to contract in 2017/18, falling by nearly 900 000 tonnes, or 10.5 percent, to
7.6 million tonnes. While small increases in imports of sorghum are anticipated in few countries, the decline in world trade reflects a significant cut in sorghum imports by China – which decreased from 5.6 million tonnes
in 2016/17 to 4.5 million tonnes in 2017/18 – and smaller imports also by Mexico, which decreased by 110 000 tonnes to 670 000 tonnes.
Turning to export prospects in 2017/18 (July/June), larger export availabilities of coarse grains are seen to comfortably meet the current projected rise in import demand. Among the world’s leading maize exporters, the biggest year-on-year rise in exports is forecast for Brazil, where a record maize crop and a favourable exchange rate are likely to drive up the country’s maize sales this season by as much 15 million tonnes, or 120 percent,
to around 28 million tonnes, representing the second highest level on record. The sharp increase in exports
by Brazil more than offset an equally significant fall in exports by the United States, the world’s largest maize exporter. Total maize sales from the United States in 2017/18 are seen to drop to 47 million tonnes, nearly
15 million tonnes, or 24 percent down from the 2016/17 record level of just under 62 million tonnes. However, a
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
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COARSE GRAINS